← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

SOL coils above support as ETF speculation builds momentum. Given: long SOL — entry 75.26, stop 72.63, target 82.36. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.6996197718631056, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.26invalidation 72.63takeProfit 82.36rr 2.7confidence 0.6
Risk is 2.63 (75.26-72.63), reward is 7.10 (82.36-75.26), giving R:R of ~2.7 which exceeds the 2:1 minimum, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.26invalidation 72.63takeProfit 82.36rr 2.7confidence 0.62
Risk is 2.63 (75.26-72.63), reward is 7.10 (82.36-75.26), giving R:R of ~2.70 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.26invalidation 72.63takeProfit 82.36rr 2.7confidence 0.9
Reward (82.36 - 75.26 = 7.10) divided by risk (75.26 - 72.63 = 2.63) gives 2.70, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is 2.70 (>2), fulfilling the minimum requirement. The ETF speculation narrative provides a directional edge.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.26invalidation 72.63takeProfit 82.36rr 2.7confidence 1
The calculated reward to risk ratio is 2.7, which satisfies the strict mandate of requiring an R:R of at least 2.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.26invalidation 72.63takeProfit 82.36rr 2.7confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.7, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.26invalidation 72.63takeProfit 82.36rr 2.7confidence 0.78
Reward 7.10 / Risk 2.63 = 2.70, which meets the minimum 2:1 R:R requirement, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.26invalidation 72.63takeProfit 82.36rr 2.7confidence 0.62
Risk = 75.26 - 72.63 = 2.63; Reward = 82.36 - 75.26 = 7.10; R:R = 7.10/2.63 ≈ 2.70, which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is eligible. Confidence is moderate because while the R:R qualifies, the entry/stop geometry implies a ~3.5% stop — sizing must respect the 1% equity risk cap.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.9
Reward is 7.10 and risk is 2.63, giving an R:R of about 2.70, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.26invalidation 72.63takeProfit 82.36rr 2.7confidence 0.7
Reward is 7.10 and risk is 2.63, giving an RR of about 2.70, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 7.10/2.63 = 2.70, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.65
Reward:risk of 2.70 exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade qualifies for entry.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.9
RR calculated as 7.1/2.63 exceeds 2, meeting the minimum threshold.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.68confidence 1
The reward:risk ratio is 2.68, which exceeds the minimum requirement of 2, but the trade is rejected as the stop loss placement does not align with the required risk management.
⊢ rr=2.68 (exp 2.70), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatentry 75.26invalidation 72.63takeProfit 82.36rr 2.7confidence 0.55
Reward:risk is 2.7:1 which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold. However, ETF speculation is narrative-driven with uncertain catalyst timing; confidence is moderate and I would size conservatively if entering.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.8
Reward is 7.10 vs risk of 2.63, yielding R:R of 2.7 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade is actionable.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.6
R:R is 7.10/2.63 ≈ 2.70, exceeding the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true