← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH chops sideways while traders wait for the next macro catalyst. Given: account $3275, short ETH at 1827.6, stop 1913.5. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.47657159487776435, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4767entry 1827.6invalidation 1913.5riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 85.9, so size = 40.94/85.9 ≈ 0.4767 ETH, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.4767 (exp 0.4766, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4767entry 1827.6invalidation 1913.5riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 1913.5-1827.6 = 85.9, so size = 40.94/85.9 ≈ 0.477 ETH, risking 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.4767 (exp 0.4766, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4765riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Max risk of 1.25% of $3275 = $40.9375, divided by $85.9 risk per ETH gives ~0.4765 ETH short.
⊢ size=0.4765 (exp 0.4766, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4766riskPct 1.25confidence 0.99
Risk per ETH is $85.9; max 1.25% of $3275 is $40.94; so size = 40.94/85.9 ≈ 0.4766 ETH, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.4766 (exp 0.4766, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.3584riskPct 0.94confidence 1
Market is chopping sideways with no edge, dictating a flat position. Hypothetically, size is capped at 0.3584 ETH by the 20% notional limit, yielding 0.94% risk.
⊢ size=0.3584 (exp 0.4766, err 24.8%), riskPct=0.94
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
— no answer
no answer
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4766entry 1827.6invalidation 1913.5riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Size = (3275 * 0.0125) / (1913.5 - 1827.6) = 40.9375 / 85.9 ≈ 0.4766 ETH. By construction, account risk is exactly the 1.25% house cap (~$40.94).
⊢ size=0.4766 (exp 0.4766, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4766entry 1827.6invalidation 1913.5riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per ETH = 1913.5 − 1827.6 = 85.9. Max dollar risk = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 85.9 ≈ 0.4766 ETH, which puts exactly 1.25% of equity at risk. Note: notional ≈ $871 (~26.6% of equity) exceeds the 20% notional cap, so a stricter overlay would cap size near 0.358 ETH.
⊢ size=0.4766 (exp 0.4766, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.3583935riskPct 0.94003confidence 0.98
Using the stricter mandate, size is capped by the 20% notional limit before the 1% risk cap: 0.20 * 3275 / 1827.6 = 0.3583935 ETH. At an 85.9 stop distance, that risks about 0.94003% of equity; no new trade edge is assumed in sideways chop.
⊢ size=0.3583935 (exp 0.4766, err 24.8%), riskPct=0.94003
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 0.78
ETH is described as chopping sideways with no clear catalyst, so there is no actionable edge and the correct decision is to stand flat. No position is opened, so account risk is 0%.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.4766, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.381257entry 1827.6invalidation 1913.5riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% per trade, overriding the 1.25% parameter in the prompt. Size is calculated to risk exactly 1% of the $3275 account.
⊢ size=0.381257 (exp 0.4766, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 0
No-edge gate triggered due to sideways chop and lack of catalyst; standing flat. Note: hard rules override the 1.25% house rule, capping max risk at 1% ($32.75, or ~0.381 ETH) if a trade were taken.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.4766, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4766riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Size set to risk exactly 1.25% given 85.9 stop distance on $3275 account.
⊢ size=0.4766 (exp 0.4766, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.381riskPct 1confidence 0
No edge in sideways chop; sized to hard 1% rule for reference only.
⊢ size=0.381 (exp 0.4766, err 20.1%), riskPct=1
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatriskPct 1.25confidence 1
House rule caps risk at 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94. With a short entry at 1827.6 and stop at 1913.5, the stop distance is 85.9 points, so size = $40.94 / 85.9 = 0.4767 ETH. Actual risk = 0.4767 * 85.9 / 3275 = 1.25%.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 0
ETH is chopping sideways with no clear trend or volatility — this is a no-edge environment. Standing flat is the disciplined choice, as no clear signal exists to justify a new position.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.4766, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4766entry 1827.6invalidation 1913.5riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size calculated as (1.25% of $3275) / $85.9 stop distance = 0.4766 ETH, resulting in an actual risk of 1.25% of account equity.
⊢ size=0.4766 (exp 0.4766, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.4766entry 1827.6invalidation 1913.5riskPct 1.25confidence 0.2
Calculation: max risk = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = $85.9/ETH; size = $40.94 / $85.9 ≈ 0.4766 ETH, risking exactly 1.25% of account. However, ETH chopping sideways with no catalyst = no edge, so standing flat per no-edge gate.
⊢ size=0.4766 (exp 0.4766, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25