← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

ETH is consolidating below a key resistance zone as funding rates flip slightly positive. Given: long ETH — entry 1792.6, stop 1729.86, target 1933.77. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.2500796939751364, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1792.6invalidation 1729.86takeProfit 1933.77rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk 62.74, reward 141.17, R:R 2.25 meets the 2.0 minimum so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1792.6invalidation 1729.86takeProfit 1933.77rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk 62.74, reward 141.17, R:R ≈ 2.25 which clears the 2:1 minimum, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.95
Reward:risk is 2.25, exceeding the minimum 2.0 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1792.6invalidation 1729.86takeProfit 1933.77rr 2.25confidence 1
The calculated reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the strict mandate requirement of being at least 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1792.6invalidation 1729.86takeProfit 1933.77rr 2.25confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1792.6invalidation 1729.86takeProfit 1933.77rr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward 141.17 / Risk 62.74 = 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 reward:risk threshold, so the trade is acceptable on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatentry 1792.6invalidation 1729.86takeProfit 1933.77rr 2.25confidence 0.25
R:R = (1933.77-1792.6)/(1792.6-1729.86) = 141.17/62.74 ≈ 2.25, which clears the 2.0 threshold. However, the described context (consolidation below resistance, only slightly positive funding) is the textbook no-edge regime: weak trend, neutral smart-money posture. Per the no-edge gate, I stand flat despite the acceptable R:R — a clean R:R is not sufficient if there is no edge to harvest.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.9
Reward/risk is approximately 2.25, which meets the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.75
Reward is 141.17 and risk is 62.74, giving RR ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1792.6invalidation 1729.86takeProfit 1933.77rr 2.25confidence 0.55
Reward:risk is 141.17/62.74 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold. Consolidation below resistance with slightly positive funding is not a strong edge, but the R:R filter is satisfied.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.1entry 1792.6invalidation 1729.86takeProfit 1933.77leverage 2riskPct 0.7rr 2.25confidence 0.55
Reward-to-risk of 2.25 clears the minimum 2.0 threshold; consolidation below resistance with mild positive funding offers a plausible breakout setup, so a reduced-size long is warranted.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.8
RR=141.17/62.74=2.25 meets >=2 threshold
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.25confidence 0.8
RR meets 2+ threshold but consolidating price action and only slightly positive funding indicate weak edge, triggering no-edge gate.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.19confidence 0.5
The calculated reward-to-risk ratio is (1933.77 - 1792.6) / (1792.6 - 1729.86) = 141.17 / 62.74 = 2.25, which exceeds the required minimum of 2.
⊢ rr=2.19 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.22confidence 0.35
While the R:R of 2.22 meets the minimum threshold, the setup shows consolidation below resistance with only slightly positive funding, indicating a weak trend and low volatility environment. This suggests a low-conviction, choppy scenario where the no-edge gate applies.
⊢ rr=2.22 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.8
Reward:risk is 2.25 which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.6
The reward:risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade valid under the mandate.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true