← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

BTC chops near a daily resistance flip as funding rates climb. Given: account $7400, short BTC at 66582, stop 69078.83. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many BTC do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in BTC) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.03704697556501641, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.03705entry 66582invalidation 69078.83riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $7400 = $92.50; stop distance = $2496.83, so size = 92.50/2496.83 ≈ 0.03705 BTC, risking exactly 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.03705 (exp 0.0370, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.03705entry 66582invalidation 69078.83riskPct 1.25confidence 0.55
Risk budget 1.25% of $7400 = $92.50; stop distance is 2496.83, so size = 92.50/2496.83 ≈ 0.03705 BTC, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.03705 (exp 0.0370, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.03704663riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per BTC is $2496.83; max risk $92.5 gives size 0.03704663 BTC, risking exactly 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=0.03704663 (exp 0.0370, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.03705riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per trade capped at 1.25% of $7400 equity ($92.50). Stop distance is $2496.83, so position size = 92.50 / 2496.83 ≈ 0.03705 BTC.
⊢ size=0.03705 (exp 0.0370, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.02222823sizePct 0.2entry 66582invalidation 69078.83leverage 1riskPct 0.75confidence 1
Position size is capped by the 20% maximum notional rule rather than the 1% risk limit, resulting in an actual risk of 0.75%.
⊢ size=0.02222823 (exp 0.0370, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.022228entry 66582invalidation 69078.83riskPct 0.75confidence 0.9
Calculations yield a max size of 0.022228 BTC and 0.75% risk, as the 20% max notional rule ($1480) overrides the 1% risk cap. However, because BTC is chopping with no clear edge, the correct action is to stand flat.
⊢ size=0.022228 (exp 0.0370, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action flatriskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 0.9
Stop distance = 69078.83 - 66582 = 2496.83. Max risk = 1.25% * 7400 = 92.50. Size = 92.50 / 2496.83 ≈ 0.0370 BTC. Risk as % of account = 92.50/7400 = 1.25%. However, the position is already a short; the question asks how many BTC to buy (close), so size to close = 0.0370 BTC. No new entry warranted given choppy price action and rising funding.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.02223entry 66582invalidation 69078.83leverage 1riskPct 0.75confidence 0.5
Naive risk sizing to 1.25% gives 92.5/2496.83 = 0.0370 BTC, but notional = 0.0370*66582 = $2463 = 33.3% of equity, breaching the 20% notional cap. The notional cap binds first: max size = 0.20*7400/66582 = 0.02223 BTC, which produces actual risk of 0.02223*2496.83/7400 = 0.75% — less than the 1.25% house rule because the position is too small to absorb a full 1.25% risk inside the notional ceiling.
⊢ size=0.02223 (exp 0.0370, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.029638riskPct 1confidence 0.98
Stop distance is 2496.83 USDT per BTC; applying the stricter 1% risk cap on a 7400 account gives 74 USDT max risk, so size is 74 / 2496.83 = 0.029638 BTC.
⊢ size=0.029638 (exp 0.0370, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.02222823riskPct 0.75confidence 0.7
Size is capped by the stricter mandate: max 1% trade risk and max 20% notional; the 20% notional cap binds at about 0.02222823 BTC. With a 2496.83 stop distance, actual account risk is about 0.75%.
⊢ size=0.02222823 (exp 0.0370, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.029638entry 66582invalidation 69078.83riskPct 1compliant trueconfidence 0.6
Hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% of equity ($74), overriding the 1.25% instruction. Size is $74 / 2496.83 stop distance.
⊢ size=0.029638 (exp 0.0370, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.022228entry 66582invalidation 69078.83riskPct 0.75confidence 0.5
Position size is capped by the 20% max notional hard rule ($1480), limiting the short to 0.022228 BTC and reducing the actual risk to 0.75% of equity.
⊢ size=0.022228 (exp 0.0370, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.037riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Max risk 1.25% ($92.5) / $2496.83 per BTC distance yields 0.037 BTC short size.
⊢ size=0.037 (exp 0.0370, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.037entry 66582invalidation 69078.83riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Size set to cap realized loss at house-rule max of 1.25% given 2496.83 $/BTC distance to stop.
⊢ size=0.037 (exp 0.0370, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0372entry 66582invalidation 69078.83riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Account equity is $7400, max risk per house rule is 1.25% = $92.50. Stop distance is $69078.83 - $66582 = $2496.83 per BTC. Position size = $92.50 / $2496.83 ≈ 0.0372 BTC. Notional exposure is 0.0372 * $66582 ≈ $2477, which is 33.5% of equity (slightly above the 20% guideline but within leverage limits if using 1x leverage).
⊢ size=0.0372 (exp 0.0370, err 0.4%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.0364entry 66582invalidation 69078.83riskPct 1.25confidence 0.45
Calculating position size per the 1.25% risk rule yields 0.0364 BTC, risking 1.25% of equity ($92.50). However, BTC is chopping near daily resistance with no clear trend, funding rates rising signal overheated longs, and conviction is low — standing flat is the disciplined choice.
⊢ size=0.0364 (exp 0.0370, err 1.7%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.03705entry 66582invalidation 69078.83riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size of 0.03705 BTC is derived by dividing the 1.25% risk allowance ($92.50) by the stop distance ($2,496.83), resulting in an actual account risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.03705 (exp 0.0370, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0296entry 66582invalidation 69078.83riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Capped risk at the 1% hard rule maximum, overriding the 1.25% house rule; size is 1% of equity ($74) divided by the stop distance ($2,496.83).
⊢ size=0.0296 (exp 0.0370, err 20.1%), riskPct=1