← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

SOL hovers near 73.89 as ETF speculation stirs fresh buying interest. Given: long SOL — entry 73.89, stop 70.56, target 82.88. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.6996996996996994, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 73.89invalidation 70.56takeProfit 82.88rr 2.7confidence 0.6
Risk is 3.33 (73.89-70.56), reward is 8.99 (82.88-73.89), giving R:R ~2.70 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 73.89invalidation 70.56takeProfit 82.88rr 2.7confidence 0.6
Risk is 3.33 (73.89-70.56), reward is 8.99 (82.88-73.89), giving R:R of 2.70 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 73.89invalidation 70.56takeProfit 82.88rr 2.7confidence 0.9
Reward (82.88 - 73.89 = 8.99) / Risk (73.89 - 70.56 = 3.33) = 2.70, which exceeds the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 73.89invalidation 70.56takeProfit 82.88rr 2.7confidence 0.8
Reward:risk is 2.7 (8.99/3.33), well above the 2.0 minimum. ETF speculation provides a catalyst, and the structure supports a long with a clear invalidation below 70.56.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 73.89invalidation 70.56takeProfit 82.88rr 2.7confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.7, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 73.89invalidation 70.56takeProfit 82.88rr 2.7confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.7, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 73.89invalidation 70.56takeProfit 82.88rr 2.7confidence 0.72
Reward 8.99 vs risk 3.33 gives R:R ~2.70, which meets the >=2 minimum, so the trade is eligible on that basis alone.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 73.89invalidation 70.56takeProfit 82.88rr 2.7confidence 0.6
Reward 8.99 over risk 3.33 yields R:R of 2.70, which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is permissible on a reward:risk basis.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.99
Reward is 8.99 versus risk of 3.33, giving an R:R of 2.7, which exceeds the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.8
Reward is 8.99 and risk is 3.33, giving an R:R of about 2.7, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 73.89invalidation 70.56takeProfit 82.88leverage 1riskPct 0.9compliant truerr 2.7confidence 0.65
Reward-to-risk ratio of 2.70 exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold; position sized at 20% notional with 1x leverage keeps realized risk under 1% of equity.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 73.89invalidation 70.56takeProfit 82.88leverage 1riskPct 0.9rr 2.7confidence 0.65
Reward-to-risk ratio of 2.70 exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold; ETF speculation provides a near-term catalyst supporting a long bias with controlled risk.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.9
RR=8.99/3.33=2.7 which meets the >=2 threshold so the long is valid.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.71confidence 0.7
The reward-to-risk ratio of 2.71 meets the minimum 2.0 requirement, and the ETF-driven momentum provides a plausible catalyst for the move.
⊢ rr=2.71 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.69confidence 0
Reward:risk of 2.69 meets the minimum threshold, but the provided information lacks context on trend strength, volatility, and funding. Without confirming a clear edge, standing flat is the disciplined action.
⊢ rr=2.69 (exp 2.70), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.8
Reward:risk ratio is approximately 2.7, exceeding the minimum 2:1 threshold, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsize 0.4sizePct 0.01entry 73.89invalidation 70.56takeProfit 82.88leverage 1riskPct 1compliant truemaxNotional 29.56rr 2.7confidence 0.6
Reward:risk ratio is 2.70 which exceeds the minimum threshold of 2, making the trade acceptable under the mandate.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true