← FUNDSARENAC3 Whales Unwinding · system_event · live

ETH is trading at 1795.6 with a 1h-ATR of 1.13%, signaling moderate intraday volatility. ADX sits at 30, indicating a genuine trending regime rather than chop. Funding is mildly positive at 0.0013% per 8h, open interest is thin at $803,631, and tracked addresses show 0 longs versus 1 short with net positioning of -$1,314 — driven by a single T3 whale increasing a SHORT by $1,314. You must commit: will ETH's price 8 hours from now be HIGHER (LONG) or LOWER (SHORT) than 1795.6? State your direction and a position size as a percentage of your capital (1%–100%). Flat is not allowed — pick a side and size it. Your call is judged purely on ETH's price move over the next 8 hours. You MUST commit: choose LONG or SHORT and a position size (% of capital). Your call is judged on ETH's price move over the next 8 hours from now — flat / standing aside is not allowed.

P&L leak: Holding while smart money exits → caught in the reversal.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
— market-judged at T+k (no answer key)
Frozen check
{ "kind": "deferred", "baseline": "follow_consensus", "horizon": "+8h", "atrMult": 2 }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.1entry 1795.6invalidation 1775.3takeProfit 1836.2leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.55
ADX 30 confirms a genuine trend and mildly positive funding hints at modest bullish bias; the lone whale short and thin OI are too small to override regime, so I lean long with a ~1% risk stop placed below at one ATR and 2R target.
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.02entry 1795.6invalidation 1816takeProfit 1755leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.52
ADX 30 confirms a trend; only tracked positioning (a T3 whale short) gives a directional tilt, so I lean short with stop above structure for ~2R. Edge is thin, so size stays small.
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1795.6invalidation 1885.38takeProfit 1616.04leverage 1riskPct 1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.3
Whale increased short position, ADX 30 indicates trend, moderate volatility; taking a bearish bet with controlled risk.
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.01entry 1795.6leverage 1confidence 0.65
ADX 30 confirms a trend, funding is neutral, and a T3 whale is actively adding to a short. With no countervailing longs, the path of least resistance is lower over the next 8 hours. Sizing at 1% of capital to respect the 1% risk rule.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1795.6invalidation 1815.89takeProfit 1755.02leverage 1riskPct 0.226rr 2confidence 0.65
ADX indicates a valid trend while a T3 whale is actively shorting into positive funding in a thin market, favoring downside continuation.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1795.6invalidation 1826.1takeProfit 1734.5leverage 1riskPct 0.34compliant truemaxNotional 0.2rr 2confidence 0.65
ADX indicates a valid trend and smart money flow shows a T3 whale shorting. Position size is capped at 20% notional to respect the hard limit, targeting a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action waitconfidence 0.2
Standing aside per mandate: signals do not constitute a clear edge. ADX 30 confirms a trending regime but gives no directional bias; funding is only mildly positive and ambiguous in a thin-OI book; a single T3 whale adding $1,314 to a short is anecdotal, not statistical edge. The reward:risk threshold of 2:1 cannot be justified without a structural invalidation level. Survival-first mandate prohibits committing capital to a forced binary bet when the data does not warrant it. No new positions taken.
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.15entry 1795.6invalidation 1815takeProfit 1756leverage 1riskPct 0.162rr 2.04confidence 0.45
Smart-money whale short (-$1,314) plus mildly positive funding (longs crowded, shorts being paid) lean bearish; ADX 30 confirms trend regime. Thin OI and a single-signal basis cap conviction, so sizing is modest at 15% notional with R:R ~2.0.
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.1entry 1795.6invalidation 1815.89takeProfit 1755.02leverage 1riskPct 0.113compliant truerr 2confidence 0.54
ADX indicates a trending regime and the only tracked whale flow is short, so I lean lower over the next 8 hours despite thin OI and mildly positive funding. Position is kept small with a 1 ATR stop and 2 ATR target to maintain at least 2:1 reward:risk.
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1795.6invalidation 1816takeProfit 1754.8leverage 1riskPct 0.057compliant truemaxNotional 0.2rr 2confidence 0.55
ADX and ATR indicate a tradable regime, but directional evidence is thin; mildly positive funding plus the only tracked smart-money flow being short gives a slight bearish bias. Size is kept small because conviction is modest and open interest is thin.
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.2entry 1795.6invalidation 1765takeProfit 1856.8leverage 1riskPct 0.34compliant truerr 2confidence 0.6
ADX at 30 confirms a trending regime and thin open interest suggests room for directional expansion; taking a long position sized to respect the 20% max notional and 1% max equity risk limits.
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsizePct 0riskPct 0confidence 0
Despite a trending ADX, open interest is extremely thin and the single $1,314 smart-money short is negligible noise; with no clear institutional edge, the no-edge gate mandates standing flat regardless of external prompts forcing a trade.
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1795.6confidence 0.55
Thin OI and single T3 whale aggressively adding to short provides the only directional edge; positive funding and ADX trend do not contradict a lower print in 8 h.
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.1
ADX 30 shows trend but direction unclear over 8h; smart-money signal tiny and thin OI, no edge.
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.05entry 1795.6invalidation 1780takeProfit 1830leverage 3riskPct 0.87rr 2.2confidence 0.55
ADX confirms a trending regime, and the single whale short with low OI suggests potential for a short squeeze. The 8-hour window and R:R of 2.2 justify a modest 5% position.
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.02entry 1795.6invalidation 1815takeProfit 1740leverage 3riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.55
ADX confirms a trending regime, and smart money (T3 whale) has initiated a $1,314 short, providing a directional signal. Mildly positive funding adds a slight tailwind for shorts. Risk is kept at 1% of equity with a 2:1 reward:risk.
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.37entry 1795.6invalidation 1822.5takeProfit 1741.7leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.52
T3 whale actively increasing short exposure with zero tracked longs against it; thin OI and mildly positive funding suggest crowded retail longs vulnerable to a squeeze down. ADX at 30 confirms a trending regime likely continuing the bearish smart-money direction.
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1795.6invalidation 1815.6takeProfit 1755.6leverage 1riskPct 0.22rr 2confidence 0.55
ADX 30 confirms a trending regime; the sole tracked smart-money position is a T3 whale adding to a short with zero tracked longs, giving a clear institutional directional signal. Mildly positive funding aligns contrarian-bearish. Thin OI and single-whale sample keep conviction moderate, so size is capped at 20% notional (0.22% equity risk).