← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH chops sideways as traders await a key macro print, keeping volatility coiled. Given: account $3275, short ETH at 1792.6, stop 1876.85. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.48590504451038574, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4859entry 1792.6invalidation 1876.85riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = $84.25, so size = 40.94/84.25 ≈ 0.486 ETH, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.4859 (exp 0.4859, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4858entry 1792.6invalidation 1876.85riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max risk = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 84.25, so size = 40.94/84.25 ≈ 0.486 ETH, risking 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.4858 (exp 0.4859, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4859entry 1792.6invalidation 1876.85riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per ETH is 84.25 stop distance. Max risk allowed is 1.25% of $3275 = $40.9375. Size = 40.9375 / 84.25 ≈ 0.4859 ETH. RiskPct is exactly the allowed 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.4859 (exp 0.4859, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.486riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Risk per ETH = 1876.85 - 1792.6 = 84.25. Max risk = 3275 * 0.0125 = 40.9375. Size = 40.9375 / 84.25 ≈ 0.486 ETH. Risk is exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=0.486 (exp 0.4859, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 1
ETH is chopping sideways ahead of a key macro print, offering no edge and violating the rule against trading near high-impact data releases. Therefore, I must stand flat with zero risk.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.4859, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 1
Sideways chop and an impending macro print violate the no-edge and data release hard rules, requiring a flat stance. Additionally, the suggested 1.25% risk exceeds the strict 1% maximum mandate.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.4859, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4859entry 1792.6invalidation 1876.85riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per ETH = 1876.85 - 1792.6 = $84.25. Max risk = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 84.25 ≈ 0.4859 ETH, which puts exactly 1.25% of equity at risk.
⊢ size=0.4859 (exp 0.4859, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4859entry 1792.6invalidation 1876.85riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk-based sizing: 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94 risk budget; stop distance = 1876.85 − 1792.6 = $84.25; size = 40.94 / 84.25 ≈ 0.486 ETH. Realized risk = 1.25% by construction. Note: notional ≈ $871 (~26.6% of equity) would breach the 20% notional cap, so a stricter cap would reduce size to ~0.365 ETH (≈0.94% risk).
⊢ size=0.4859 (exp 0.4859, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.388724riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Stop distance is 84.25 USDT; under the hard 1% risk cap, max dollar risk is 32.75, giving 0.388724 ETH. This risks exactly 1.0% of the account, not the looser 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=0.388724 (exp 0.4859, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 0.86
ETH is chopping with volatility coiled ahead of a key macro print, so there is no clean edge and I would not add/take this short. Standing flat keeps actual account risk at 0%.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.4859, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.388724entry 1792.6invalidation 1876.85riskPct 1compliant trueconfidence 0.5
System hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% of equity ($32.75), overriding the 1.25% house rule. Size is calculated as $32.75 / 84.25 stop distance.
⊢ size=0.388724 (exp 0.4859, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.3654entry 1792.6invalidation 1876.85riskPct 0.94confidence 0.8
Position size is constrained by the 20% max notional hard rule ($655), limiting size to 0.3654 ETH and actual risk to 0.94%, overriding the 1.25% house rule to remain fully compliant.
⊢ size=0.3654 (exp 0.4859, err 24.8%), riskPct=0.94
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.4859riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Risk budget 40.9375 USD divided by 84.25 USD/ETH stop distance yields position size; uses full 1.25% house-rule risk.
⊢ size=0.4859 (exp 0.4859, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.486riskPct 1.25confidence 0
No edge in sideways chop ahead of macro; calculation yields 0.486 ETH at 1.25% risk if position were taken.
⊢ size=0.486 (exp 0.4859, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4855entry 1792.6invalidation 1876.85riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
ETH chopping sideways with coiled volatility ahead of macro data, but shorting here per the given position parameters. Risk capped at 1.25% per house rule.
⊢ size=0.4855 (exp 0.4859, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0481entry 1792.6invalidation 1876.85riskPct 1.25confidence 0.65
House rule sets max risk at 1.25% of equity ($40.94). Stop distance is $84.25 per ETH, so size = $40.94 / 84.25 = 0.486 ETH. Entry at 1792.6 with stop at 1876.85.
⊢ size=0.0481 (exp 0.4859, err 90.1%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4859entry 1792.6invalidation 1876.85riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Position size of 0.4859 ETH is derived by dividing the 1.25% max risk amount ($40.94) by the stop distance ($84.25), resulting in an actual account risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.4859 (exp 0.4859, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.4859riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Mathematically, size is 0.4859 ETH with 1.25% risk, but the no-edge gate mandates standing flat in a sideways, low-vol chop ahead of macro.
⊢ size=0.4859 (exp 0.4859, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25