← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH chops near 1840 as traders await the next Fed signal. Given: account $3275, short ETH at 1839.7, stop 1922.49. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.49447397028626666, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4944entry 1839.7invalidation 1922.49riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = $82.79, so size = 0.4944 ETH risking exactly 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.4944 (exp 0.4945, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4945entry 1839.7invalidation 1922.49riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance 82.79 gives 0.4945 ETH, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.4945 (exp 0.4945, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4945riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Maximum risk allowed is 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94. With stop distance $82.79 per ETH, max position size = 40.94 / 82.79 ≈ 0.4945 ETH, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.4945 (exp 0.4945, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4945entry 1839.7invalidation 1922.49riskPct 1.25compliant falsemaxNotional 909.8confidence 1
Size = (0.0125 * 3275) / (1922.49 - 1839.7) = 40.9375 / 82.79 ≈ 0.4945 ETH, risking exactly 1.25% of account. However, this violates hard rule of max 1% risk per trade, and notional is 27.8% of equity (>20% limit).
⊢ size=0.4945 (exp 0.4945, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.356entry 1839.7invalidation 1922.49riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Market is chopping ahead of a Fed signal, dictating a flat stance. Hypothetically, the 20% max notional rule caps the position at 0.356 ETH, keeping realized risk at 0.9% and overriding the 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=0.356 (exp 0.4945, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.356riskPct 0.9confidence 0
Calculated size is capped by the 20% max notional rule to 0.356 ETH (0.90% risk), but standing flat due to choppy conditions and impending Fed signal.
⊢ size=0.356 (exp 0.4945, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.3956entry 1839.7invalidation 1922.49riskPct 1compliant trueconfidence 1
Stop distance = 1922.49 - 1839.7 = 82.79. Binding risk cap is 1% of $3275 (system mandate, stricter than stated 1.25% house rule) = $32.75, giving size = 32.75 / 82.79 ≈ 0.3956 ETH; realized riskPct = 1.0%.
⊢ size=0.3956 (exp 0.4945, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.3956entry 1839.7invalidation 1922.49riskPct 1compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Sized to the 1% hard-rule cap (not the 1.25% house rule, which would breach the mandate). Risk $ = 0.01 × $3275 = $32.75; stop distance = 82.79; size = 32.75/82.79 ≈ 0.3956 ETH.
⊢ size=0.3956 (exp 0.4945, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.35603riskPct 0.9confidence 0.99
Hard mandate caps risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity; the 20% notional cap is binding here. At 0.35603 ETH, stop distance of 82.79 risks about $29.48, or 0.90% of the account.
⊢ size=0.35603 (exp 0.4945, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.356riskPct 0.9confidence 0.55
Stop distance is 82.79; although the 1% risk cap allows about 0.396 ETH, the 20% max-notional rule caps size at about 0.356 ETH. That puts approximately 0.90% of equity at risk.
⊢ size=0.356 (exp 0.4945, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.356entry 1839.7invalidation 1922.49riskPct 0.9confidence 0.5
Hard rule caps risk at 1% ($32.75), yielding 0.396 ETH, but the 20% notional limit ($655 max) binds first, restricting size to 0.356 ETH and actual risk to 0.9% of equity.
⊢ size=0.356 (exp 0.4945, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.356entry 1839.7invalidation 1922.49riskPct 0.9confidence 0.5
Position size is constrained by the 20% max notional hard rule ($655), limiting the short to 0.356 ETH. This results in an actual risk of 0.9%, safely below the 1% max risk limit.
⊢ size=0.356 (exp 0.4945, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.494riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Risk 1.25% of 3275 equals 40.94 USD; 82.79 USD/ETH stop distance yields 0.494 ETH size.
⊢ size=0.494 (exp 0.4945, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.494riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Risk distance 82.79, 1.25% of 3275 allows 40.94 loss, size=40.94/82.79
⊢ size=0.494 (exp 0.4945, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 1
The user asks how many ETH to buy to close the short position, but the question is about position sizing for the short. We compute the size and riskPct. We will compute size and riskPct.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 0
The user is asking to close an existing short position, but the scenario is ambiguous. More importantly, ETH is chopping near a key level (1840) with traders waiting for a Fed signal, indicating low volatility, weak trend, and no clear edge. Standing flat is the correct action per the no-edge gate.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.4945, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.4945riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Position size calculated by dividing the 1.25% risk allowance ($40.94) by the stop distance ($82.79), resulting in 0.4945 ETH and an actual risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.4945 (exp 0.4945, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.356entry 1839.7invalidation 1922.49riskPct 0.9confidence 0.8
Notional cap of 20% limits size to 0.356 ETH, reducing actual risk to 0.9% of equity.
⊢ size=0.356 (exp 0.4945, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9