← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

HYPE is consolidating after a sharp rally and you're eyeing a breakout entry. Given: account $3850, short HYPE at 75.92, stop 79.34. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many HYPE do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in HYPE) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 14.071637426900578, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.07entry 75.92invalidation 79.34riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = 3.42, so size = 48.13/3.42 ≈ 14.07 HYPE, risking 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=14.07 (exp 14.0716, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.07entry 75.92invalidation 79.34riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Max risk = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $3.42 per HYPE, so size = 48.13/3.42 ≈ 14.07 HYPE, risking 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=14.07 (exp 14.0716, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.07entry 75.92invalidation 79.34leverage 1riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per unit = 79.34 - 75.92 = 3.42. Max risk = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. Size = $48.125 / $3.42 ≈ 14.07 HYPE. Actual risk is exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=14.07 (exp 14.0716, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.07entry 75.92invalidation 79.34riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risking exactly 1.25% of the $3850 account ($48.125) with a stop distance of $3.42 gives a position size of 14.07 HYPE short.
⊢ size=14.07 (exp 14.0716, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.14sizePct 0.2entry 75.92invalidation 79.34leverage 1riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Although the house rule allows 1.25% risk, the hard mandate caps risk at 1% and notional size at 20% of equity ($770). The 20% notional limit restricts the size to 10.14 HYPE, resulting in a compliant 0.90% risk.
⊢ size=10.14 (exp 14.0716, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.14entry 75.92invalidation 79.34riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Although the prompt suggests a 1.25% risk rule, hard rules dictate a maximum 1% risk and 20% max notional per position. The 20% notional limit ($770) caps the size at 10.14 HYPE, resulting in an actual risk of 0.90%.
⊢ size=10.14 (exp 14.0716, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.07entry 75.92invalidation 79.34riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per HYPE = 79.34 - 75.92 = 3.42. Max dollar risk = 0.0125 × $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 3.42 ≈ 14.07 HYPE, which puts exactly 1.25% of the account at risk per the stated house rule.
⊢ size=14.07 (exp 14.0716, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.07entry 75.92invalidation 79.34riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max risk = 1.25% × $3850 = $48.125. Risk per HYPE = 79.34 − 75.92 = 3.42. Size = 48.125 / 3.42 ≈ 14.07 HYPE, putting exactly 1.25% of equity at risk.
⊢ size=14.07 (exp 14.0716, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.142254riskPct 0.901confidence 0.99
Sizing is capped by the 20% max-notional rule: $770 / 75.92 = 10.142254 HYPE. With a 3.42 stop distance, actual risk is about $34.69, or 0.901% of equity.
⊢ size=10.142254 (exp 14.0716, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.901
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.1423riskPct 0.901confidence 0.9
Using the stricter 1% max risk and the 20% max notional cap, position size is capped by notional: $770 / 75.92 = 10.1423 HYPE. Actual risk is 10.1423 * 3.42 = $34.69, or 0.901% of the $3850 account.
⊢ size=10.1423 (exp 14.0716, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.901
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.14entry 75.92invalidation 79.34riskPct 0.9compliant truemaxNotional 770confidence 0.5
Position constrained by the 20% notional cap ($770 max), which is binding before the 1% risk limit; 10.14 HYPE short at 75.92 with stop at 79.34 risks $34.68 or 0.9% of equity.
⊢ size=10.14 (exp 14.0716, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.14entry 75.92invalidation 79.34riskPct 0.9confidence 0.5
Position size is constrained by the 20% max notional hard rule ($770), capping the short at 10.14 HYPE. This results in a realized risk of 0.9%, ensuring compliance with the 1% max risk hard rule despite the suggested 1.25%.
⊢ size=10.14 (exp 14.0716, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.07riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Risk 1.25% of 3850 gives 48.125 USD; 3.42 stop distance yields 14.07 HYPE short.
⊢ size=14.07 (exp 14.0716, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.2573099415riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Calculated size using 1% risk limit per hard rules on given stop distance.
⊢ size=11.2573099415 (exp 14.0716, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.12entry 75.92invalidation 79.34riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Consolidation after a sharp rally often resolves with a breakdown; entering short with stop above consolidation high, sizing to 1.25% risk per house rule.
⊢ size=14.12 (exp 14.0716, err 0.3%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.19entry 75.92invalidation 79.34riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Short entry at 75.92 with stop at 79.34. Risk per HYPE = 3.42. Total risk = 3850 * 1.25% = 48.125. Size = 48.125 / 3.42 ≈ 14.07 HYPE. The actual risk percent is exactly 1.25% as specified by the house rule.
⊢ size=14.19 (exp 14.0716, err 0.8%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.07entry 75.92invalidation 79.34riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Sized to the maximum 1.25% risk limit based on the stop distance.
⊢ size=14.07 (exp 14.0716, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.07entry 75.92invalidation 79.34riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculated position size for a short entry based on 1.25% max risk.
⊢ size=14.07 (exp 14.0716, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25