← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH chops sideways near 1794 as traders wait for the next macro catalyst. Given: account $3275, short ETH at 1794.4, stop 1928.98. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.3041871006093032, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3042entry 1794.4invalidation 1928.98riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = $134.58, so size = 40.94/134.58 ≈ 0.304 ETH, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.3042 (exp 0.3042, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3042entry 1794.4invalidation 1928.98riskPct 1.25confidence 0.4
Max risk 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance is 134.58, so size = 40.94/134.58 ≈ 0.3042 ETH, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.3042 (exp 0.3042, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.304riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Short stop distance is 134.58 points (1928.98 - 1794.4). Risk per unit = 134.58. Account risk budget = 3275 * 0.0125 = 40.9375. Size = 40.9375 / 134.58 ≈ 0.304 ETH, utilizing exactly the 1.25% max risk allowed.
⊢ size=0.304 (exp 0.3042, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.304riskPct 1.25confidence 0.95
Short at 1794.4, stop at 1928.98 gives risk of $134.58 per ETH. Max risk 1.25% of $3275 is $40.94. Size = $40.94 / $134.58 ≈ 0.304 ETH, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.304 (exp 0.3042, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.2433riskPct 1confidence 1
Standing flat due to sideways chop and lack of edge. If traded, size is capped at the 1% hard rule limit rather than the 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=0.2433 (exp 0.3042, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.2433riskPct 1confidence 1
Calculated size is 0.2433 ETH to strictly cap risk at the 1% hard rule (overriding the 1.25% suggestion), but the correct action is to stand flat as sideways chop and pending macro catalysts offer no edge.
⊢ size=0.2433 (exp 0.3042, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3042entry 1794.4invalidation 1928.98riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk budget = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.94. Stop distance = 1928.98 − 1794.4 = 134.58. Size = 40.94 / 134.58 ≈ 0.3042 ETH, which puts exactly 1.25% of equity at risk.
⊢ size=0.3042 (exp 0.3042, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3042entry 1794.4invalidation 1928.98riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Short risk per ETH = 1928.98 - 1794.4 = 134.58. Max risk $ = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 134.58 ≈ 0.304 ETH. RiskPct = 1.25% by construction. Note: this exceeds the mandate's 1% hard rule; sizing to the mandate would give ~0.243 ETH at 1.00% risk.
⊢ size=0.3042 (exp 0.3042, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 0.95
No trade is taken because the market is described as sideways with no clear edge and no take-profit/R:R is provided. Under the mandate, risk remains 0%.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.3042, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.24334riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Using the stricter 1% mandate cap, max dollar risk is $32.75 and stop distance is $134.58, so size is about 0.24334 ETH. I would not initiate a new trade here due to chop/no clear edge, but this is the compliant sizing calculation.
⊢ size=0.24334 (exp 0.3042, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.2433entry 1794.4invalidation 1928.98riskPct 1confidence 0.15
Sideways chop with no clear edge and no take-profit defined, so R:R cannot be confirmed >= 2; standing flat. Hard-rule 1% risk cap gives $32.75 / 134.58 stop distance = 0.2433 ETH.
⊢ size=0.2433 (exp 0.3042, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2433entry 1794.4invalidation 1928.98riskPct 1compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Hard rule caps risk at 1% of equity, overriding the suggested 1.25% house rule. Position size is calculated to risk exactly $32.75 (1% of $3275) over the 134.58 stop distance.
⊢ size=0.2433 (exp 0.3042, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.304riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk 1.25% of 3275 equals 40.94 USD; 134.58 USD stop distance yields 0.304 ETH position size.
⊢ size=0.304 (exp 0.3042, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.3riskPct 1.25confidence 0
⊢ size=0.3 (exp 0.3042, err 1.4%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.3066riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Calculated the position size to match the house rule of 1.25% risk per trade. The trade is already open, so action is flat (hold). Size is 0.3066 ETH, risking 1.25% of account ($40.94).
⊢ size=0.3066 (exp 0.3042, err 0.8%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3048entry 1794.4invalidation 1928.98riskPct 1.25confidence 0.75
Shorting ETH at 1794.4 with a stop at 1928.98. The stop distance is 134.58 points. To risk exactly 1.25% of the $3275 account ($40.9375), the position size is 0.3048 ETH. This complies with the house rule.
⊢ size=0.3048 (exp 0.3042, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3037entry 1794.4invalidation 1928.98riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk amount is $40.94 (1.25% of $3275), stop distance is $134.58, yielding a position size of 0.3037 ETH with 1.25% of account equity at risk.
⊢ size=0.3037 (exp 0.3042, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3043entry 1794.4invalidation 1928.98riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Position size is 0.3043 ETH calculated from 1.25% max risk ($40.94) divided by the stop distance ($134.58), resulting in an actual risk of 1.25% of the account; however, a choppy market with no clear edge warrants standing flat.
⊢ size=0.3043 (exp 0.3042, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25