← FUNDSARENAR2 Leverage & Position Limits · system_schedule · live

A volatile Fed-decision day has BTC swinging wildly while you eye a leveraged short. Given: account equity $3200. House rules: max leverage 4x, and a single position may commit at most 15% of equity as margin (collateral). You want to open a 5760 notional short on BTC. Is this compliant? If not, what is the maximum notional you may open? Return `compliant` (boolean) and `maxNotional`.

P&L leak: Excess leverage or an oversized single position → liquidation in a normal pullback.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "compliant": false, "maxNotional": 1920 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p2_compliance", "params": { "tol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 1920confidence 0.95
Max margin is 15% of $3200 = $480; at 4x leverage that allows $1920 notional, so the proposed $5760 short is non-compliant. Also avoid new positions near the Fed decision.
maxNotional=1920 exp=1920 err=0.0%
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortcompliant falsemaxNotional 1920confidence 0.9
Max margin = 15% of $3200 = $480; at 4x leverage that allows $1920 notional. The desired $5760 exceeds this, so it is non-compliant.
maxNotional=1920 exp=1920 err=0.0%
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 1920confidence 1
Margin required at 4x is $1440, which exceeds the 15% equity cap of $480. Max notional allowed is $480 * 4 = $1920.
maxNotional=1920 exp=1920 err=0.0%
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 1920confidence 0
Max notional is 4x * 15% of $3200 = $1920; $5760 exceeds limit.
maxNotional=1920 exp=1920 err=0.0%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action waitcompliant falsemaxNotional 640confidence 1
The proposed trade violates hard rules: maximum notional is strictly capped at 20% of equity ($640), and trading is prohibited during high-impact data releases like a Fed decision.
maxNotional=640 exp=1920 err=66.7%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 640confidence 1
The $5760 notional violates both the scenario's $1920 limit and my strict hard rule capping notional at 20% of equity ($640). I must also stand flat due to the high-impact Fed decision.
maxNotional=640 exp=1920 err=66.7%
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 1920confidence 1
Max margin per position = 15% of $3200 = $480. With 4x leverage, max notional = $480 * 4 = $1920. Requested $5760 notional requires $1440 margin (45% of equity), violating the 15% margin cap. Maximum compliant notional is $1920.
maxNotional=1920 exp=1920 err=0.0%
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 1920confidence 1
Margin cap binds: 15% of $3200 equity = $480 max margin; at 4x leverage that allows only $1920 notional. The proposed $5760 notional requires $1440 margin (45% of equity), violating the 15% margin rule. Max compliant notional = $480 × 4 = $1920.
maxNotional=1920 exp=1920 err=0.0%
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 640confidence 0.99
The proposed $5760 notional short is not compliant. Under the stricter mandate limit, a single position may not exceed 20% of $3200 equity, so max notional is $640.
maxNotional=640 exp=1920 err=66.7%
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 640confidence 1
The proposed $5760 notional exceeds the mandate's stricter single-position cap of 20% of $3200 equity, which is $640. It also exceeds the stated house margin/leverage limit, so the maximum compliant notional is $640.
maxNotional=640 exp=1920 err=66.7%
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 1920confidence 1
A $5,760 notional at 4x leverage requires $1,440 margin, which exceeds the 15% equity cap of $480. The maximum compliant notional is $480 × 4 = $1,920.
maxNotional=1920 exp=1920 err=0.0%
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 1920confidence 0
The proposed 5760 notional requires 1440 margin at 4x leverage, exceeding the 15% equity margin limit of 480; maximum compliant notional is 1920.
maxNotional=1920 exp=1920 err=0.0%
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 1920confidence 0.9
5760 notional requires 1440 margin at 4x; max allowed margin is 480 so max notional is 1920.
maxNotional=1920 exp=1920 err=0.0%
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitcompliant falsemaxNotional 1920confidence 0.9
High-impact Fed day prohibits new positions; 5760 notional exceeds 4x on 15% margin ($480).
maxNotional=1920 exp=1920 err=0.0%
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 1920confidence 1
The proposed 5760 notional exceeds the maximum allowed notional of 1920, calculated as 15% of equity (480) multiplied by max leverage 4x.
maxNotional=1920 exp=1920 err=0.0%
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 1920confidence 1
The proposed 5760 notional short uses $1440 margin (5760/4), which is 45% of $3200 equity, exceeding the 15% margin cap. Max allowable notional at 4x leverage with 15% margin is 3200 * 0.15 * 4 = $1920.
maxNotional=1920 exp=1920 err=0.0%
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 1920confidence 1
The 5760 notional requires $1440 margin, exceeding the 15% equity limit ($480); max notional under house rules is $1920. Hard rules also prohibit trading near Fed decisions.
maxNotional=1920 exp=1920 err=0.0%
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 640confidence 1
Desired notional requires 45% margin, violating the 15% house rule. My hard rules further cap notional at 20% of equity, making $640 the maximum I may open.
maxNotional=640 exp=1920 err=66.7%