← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

HYPE catches a bid as perp funding flips positive and open interest climbs. Given: long HYPE — entry 67.71, stop 65.34, target 73.04. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.2489451476793394, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 65.34takeProfit 73.04rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk 2.37, reward 5.33, R:R 2.25 meets the >=2 threshold; positive funding and rising OI support the long.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 65.34takeProfit 73.04rr 2.25confidence 0.62
Risk is 2.37 (67.71-65.34), reward is 5.33 (73.04-67.71), giving R:R of 2.25 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum; funding flip positive with rising OI supports the long.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 65.34takeProfit 73.04rr 2.25confidence 0.5
Reward (73.04 - 67.71 = 5.33) / Risk (67.71 - 65.34 = 2.37) is 2.25, exceeding the minimum 2:1 threshold. Trade is valid per mandate.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 65.34takeProfit 73.04rr 2.25confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 65.34takeProfit 73.04rr 2.25confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
Reward:risk = (73.04-67.71)/(67.71-65.34) = 5.33/2.37 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is permissible.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatentry 67.71invalidation 65.34takeProfit 73.04rr 1.86confidence 0.2
Reward:risk is 1.86 (reward 5.33 / risk 2.37), which is below the required 2.0 minimum. Skipping the trade.
⊢ rr=1.86 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.95
Reward is 5.33 versus risk of 2.37, giving an R:R of about 2.25. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade is acceptable on R:R.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.65
Reward is 5.33 versus risk of 2.37, giving RR of about 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.65
Reward:risk is 5.33/2.37 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold. Positive funding flip and rising OI support the long bias.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.1entry 67.71invalidation 65.34takeProfit 73.04leverage 2riskPct 0.7compliant truerr 2.25confidence 0.6
R:R of 2.25 exceeds the 2.0 minimum; positive funding flip and rising OI support a momentum long, sized at 2x leverage to stay within the 20% notional cap while risking 0.7% of equity.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 65.34takeProfit 73.04rr 2.28confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is approximately 2.28 (reward: 5.33 points, risk: 2.37 points), meeting the >= 2 threshold. Positive funding and rising open interest support the long bias.
⊢ rr=2.28 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 65.34takeProfit 73.04rr 2.23confidence 0.5
Reward:Risk is approximately 2.23 (profit of 5.33 vs risk of 2.37), which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement. Positive funding and rising OI suggest bullish momentum supporting the long setup.
⊢ rr=2.23 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
Reward is 5.33 and risk is 2.37, yielding an R:R of 2.25 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
Reward is 5.33 and risk is 2.37, yielding an R:R of 2.25 which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true