← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

BTC consolidates near 66362 after a sharp rally, with bulls eyeing a continuation breakout. Given: long BTC — entry 66362, stop 64039.33, target 72633.21. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.7000004305389966, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66362invalidation 64039.33takeProfit 72633.21rr 2.7confidence 0.6
Risk is 2322.67 and reward is 6271.21, giving R:R ≈ 2.7, which exceeds the 2:1 minimum, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66362invalidation 64039.33takeProfit 72633.21rr 2.7confidence 0.6
Risk is 2322.67 and reward is 6271.21, giving R:R ~2.7 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable on a continuation-breakout thesis.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66362invalidation 64039.33takeProfit 72633.21compliant truerr 2.7confidence 0.7
Reward:risk ratio is 2.70, exceeding the required 2:1, making the trade compliant and acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.5
Reward:risk ratio is 2.70, exceeding the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66362invalidation 64039.33takeProfit 72633.21rr 2.7confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.7, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making this trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66362invalidation 64039.33takeProfit 72633.21rr 2.7confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.7, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66362invalidation 64039.33takeProfit 72633.21rr 2.7confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is 6271.21 / 2322.67 ≈ 2.70, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is acceptable on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66362invalidation 64039.33takeProfit 72633.21rr 2.7confidence 0.7
Reward:risk = (72633.21 - 66362) / (66362 - 64039.33) = 6271.21 / 2322.67 ≈ 2.70, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is eligible.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.99
Reward is 6271.21 and risk is 2322.67, giving an R:R of 2.7. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade is acceptable on R:R.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66362invalidation 64039.33takeProfit 72633.21rr 2.7confidence 0.8
Reward:risk is 2.7, which meets the minimum requirement of 2. The setup is eligible on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66362invalidation 64039.33takeProfit 72633.21rr 2.7confidence 0.65
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.70 (6271.21 / 2322.67), which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 66362invalidation 64039.33takeProfit 72633.21leverage 1riskPct 0.7rr 2.7confidence 0.6
Reward-to-risk ratio of 2.70 exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold; position sized to 20% notional cap with 0.7% equity risk, well within the 1% hard limit.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.7confidence 0.9
The calculated reward:risk is 2.7, which meets the required minimum of 2.0. However, the trade setup itself is being skipped due to the lack of a clear, high-conviction edge at the current consolidation zone after a sharp rally, which presents a risk of a false breakout.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66362invalidation 64039.33takeProfit 72633.21rr 2.74confidence 0.5
Risk is 2322.67 (66362-64039.33), reward is 6271.21 (72633.21-66362), giving a reward:risk ratio of 2.74, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.74 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.6
Reward-to-risk ratio is approximately 2.7, which exceeds the minimum threshold of 2, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66362invalidation 64039.33takeProfit 72633.21rr 2.7confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 2.7:1 (risk 2322.67 pts, reward 6271.21 pts), exceeding the 2:1 minimum threshold, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true