← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

HYPE rips higher as DeFi perps volume on Hyperliquid hits a fresh weekly record. Given: long HYPE — entry 75.58, stop 72.93, target 81.54. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.249056603773595, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.58invalidation 72.93takeProfit 81.54rr 2.25confidence 0.7
Risk is 2.65 (75.58-72.93), reward is 5.96 (81.54-75.58), giving R:R of 2.25 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.58invalidation 72.93takeProfit 81.54rr 2.25confidence 0.62
Risk = 75.58-72.93 = 2.65; reward = 81.54-75.58 = 5.96; R:R = 2.25 which clears the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable on a strong volume-driven uptrend.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 1
The reward:risk ratio is 5.96/2.65 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.249056603773585confidence 0.5
The reward-risk ratio is 2.25, exceeding the minimum requirement of 2.
⊢ rr=2.249056603773585 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.58invalidation 72.93takeProfit 81.54rr 2.25confidence 1
The calculated reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which meets the strict mandate requirement of being greater than or equal to 2.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.58invalidation 72.93takeProfit 81.54rr 2.25confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.58invalidation 72.93takeProfit 81.54rr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward 5.96 / Risk 2.65 = 2.25 R:R, which meets the >=2 minimum threshold, so the trade is taken.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.58invalidation 72.93takeProfit 81.54rr 2.25confidence 0.62
Reward 5.96 over risk 2.65 yields R:R ≈ 2.25, meeting the ≥2 threshold. Fundamental catalyst (record weekly DeFi perps volume) supports the long bias, though momentum/extension risk after a rip warrants modest confidence.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.249056603773586confidence 0.99
Reward is 5.96 and risk is 2.65, giving an R:R of about 2.25, which meets the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.249056603773586 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.9
Reward is 5.96 and risk is 2.65, giving RR of about 2.25. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade is acceptable on RR.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 5.96/2.65 = 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold; bullish volume catalyst supports the long.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.85
The setup yields a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 2.25 (5.96 / 2.65), satisfying the minimum 2.0 R:R requirement amid strong volume-driven momentum.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.58invalidation 72.93takeProfit 81.54rr 2.27confidence 0.8
Reward:risk is 2.27 ((81.54-75.58)/(75.58-72.93)), which exceeds the minimum 2.0 requirement, and the setup aligns with the bullish news catalyst of record DeFi perps volume on Hyperliquid.
⊢ rr=2.27 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.58invalidation 72.93takeProfit 81.54rr 2.25confidence 0.65
Reward:risk is approximately 2.25:1 ((81.54-75.58)/(75.58-72.93)), meeting the minimum 2:1 requirement. The fundamental catalyst of record DeFi perps volume provides edge, though position sizing would require confirmation of trend strength and volatility regime.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.8
The reward:risk ratio is approximately 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.58invalidation 72.93takeProfit 81.54rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Reward is 5.96 vs risk of 2.65, giving R:R of 2.25 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade is actionable.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true