← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

BTC consolidates above 66k as funding flips positive on spot ETF inflow chatter. Given: long BTC — entry 66582, stop 64251.63, target 71825.33. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.249998927208982, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66582invalidation 64251.63takeProfit 71825.33rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk = 2330.37, reward = 5243.33, R:R ≈ 2.25 which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66582invalidation 64251.63takeProfit 71825.33rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk is 2330.37 and reward is 5243.33, giving R:R ~2.25 which clears the 2.0 minimum, with positive funding and consolidation above support supporting the long.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.9
The reward:risk is 2.25 (5243.33/2330.37), meeting the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66582invalidation 64251.63takeProfit 71825.33rr 2.25confidence 0.7
R:R is 2.25, meeting the minimum 2:1 threshold. Valid trade setup.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66582invalidation 64251.63takeProfit 71825.33rr 2.25confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making this a valid long setup.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66582invalidation 64251.63takeProfit 71825.33rr 2.25confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0. The trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66582invalidation 64251.63takeProfit 71825.33rr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward (5243.33) divided by risk (2330.37) = 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 reward:risk threshold, so the trade is eligible to be taken.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66582invalidation 64251.63takeProfit 71825.33rr 2.25confidence 0.55
Reward:risk = (71825.33-66582)/(66582-64251.63) ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade passes the reward:risk filter and is taken.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.95
Reward is 5243.33 and risk is 2330.37, giving an R:R of about 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.9
Reward is 5243.33 and risk is 2330.37, giving an R:R of about 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 5243.33 / 2330.37 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 66582invalidation 64251.63takeProfit 71825.33leverage 1riskPct 0.7rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Reward-to-risk of 2.25 meets the minimum 2.0 threshold; consolidation above 66k with positive funding and ETF inflow narrative supports a long bias, sized conservatively at 20% notional to stay within hard limits.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.8
RR = 5243.33 / 2330.37 = 2.25 which satisfies the minimum 2:1 requirement so the long is valid.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.7
RR=2.25 meets >=2 threshold; positive ETF/funding signals support long.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66582invalidation 64251.63takeProfit 71825.33rr 2.27confidence 0.75
Reward:risk of 2.27 exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, supported by spot ETF inflow momentum and positive funding indicating long interest.
⊢ rr=2.27 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66582invalidation 64251.63takeProfit 71825.33rr 2.32confidence 0.75
Reward:risk ratio is 2.32, exceeding the 2.0 threshold. Funding flipping positive with spot ETF inflow chatter suggests bullish momentum and a potential trend continuation, justifying a long entry with the provided parameters.
⊢ rr=2.32 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66582invalidation 64251.63takeProfit 71825.33rr 2.22confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is 2.22 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.22 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsize 0.3sizePct 0.01entry 66582invalidation 64251.63takeProfit 71825.33leverage 3riskPct 1compliant truemaxNotional 0.2rr 2.25confidence 0.6
R:R of 2.25 exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold; positive funding and ETF inflow narrative support the long bias.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true