← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH chops sideways near 1795 as funding flips negative ahead of a major protocol upgrade. Given: account $3275, short ETH at 1795.6, stop 1862.94. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.6079224829224816, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6082entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max risk 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance is $67.34, so size = 40.94/67.34 ≈ 0.608 ETH, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.6082 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6081entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 67.34, so size = 40.94/67.34 ≈ 0.608 ETH, risking 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=0.6081 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6079riskPct 1.25confidence 0.95
Risk per ETH is 67.34. Max risk allowed is 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94, thus size = 40.94/67.34 ≈ 0.6079 ETH, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.6079 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.06riskPct 1.23confidence 0.5
Max risk is 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94. Risk per ETH = 1862.94 - 1795.6 = $67.34. Size = 40.94 / 67.34 ≈ 0.608 ETH, rounded down to 0.06 ETH for safety. Actual risk = (0.06 * 67.34) / 3275 ≈ 0.0123 or 1.23%.
⊢ size=0.06 (exp 0.6079, err 90.1%), riskPct=1.23
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.36478entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 0.75confidence 1
Although the stop distance allows for a larger size under the 1% risk rule, the hard rule capping a single position's notional at 20% of equity ($655) restricts the size to 0.36478 ETH, resulting in an actual risk of 0.75%.
⊢ size=0.36478 (exp 0.6079, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 1
ETH is chopping sideways with no edge, dictating a flat position. Even if traded, the 20% max notional rule would cap the position at 0.364 ETH, yielding a 0.75% risk, overriding the invalid 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.6079, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.608entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Stop distance = 1862.94 - 1795.6 = 67.34 USD/ETH. Max risk = 1.25% × 3275 = 40.94 USD. Size = 40.94 / 67.34 ≈ 0.608 ETH, fully utilizing the 1.25% risk budget.
⊢ size=0.608 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
— no answer
no answer
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.36478riskPct 0.75006confidence 0.86
Position size is capped by the mandate's 20% max notional limit: $655 / 1795.6 = 0.36478 ETH. At a $67.34 stop distance, this risks about 0.75006% of equity, below the 1% mandate limit.
⊢ size=0.36478 (exp 0.6079, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75006
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.4863riskPct 1confidence 0.2
Stop distance is 67.34, so under the mandate's 1% max risk the allowable position is 32.75 / 67.34 = 0.4863 ETH. Although the stated house rule allows 1.25%, I would not exceed the 1% hard risk limit, and the sideways/choppy context argues against adding risk.
⊢ size=0.4863 (exp 0.6079, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6079entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.8
With a 67.34 stop distance, risking 1.25% ($40.94) of the $3,275 account yields 0.6079 ETH. Non-compliant: 1.25% breaches the 1% hard risk cap, and the resulting $1,092 notional is 33.3% of equity, exceeding the 20% notional limit.
⊢ size=0.6079 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6079entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 1.25confidence 0.25
Calculated size: 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94 risk; $40.94 / $67.34 stop distance = 0.6079 ETH. In practice would stand flat: sideways chop fails the no-edge gate, negative funding crowds the short side, and 1.25% breaches the 1% hard-rule cap.
⊢ size=0.6079 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.486entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 1compliant falseconfidence 0.7
Position sized to hard 1% risk limit; house 1.25% rule ignored.
⊢ size=0.486 (exp 0.6079, err 20.1%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6078riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk budget 1.25% of 3275 gives 40.9375 USD; 67.34 USD/ETH stop distance yields 0.6078 ETH size.
⊢ size=0.6078 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.603entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 1.25confidence 0.65
Risk per trade is 1.25% of $3275 = $40.9375. Stop distance = 1862.94 - 1795.6 = $67.34 per ETH. Position size = $40.9375 / 67.34 = 0.608 ETH (rounded to 0.603). This keeps risk at the specified 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.603 (exp 0.6079, err 0.8%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 18.58riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Size calculated from stop distance and risk limit: size = ($3275 * 0.0125) / (1862.94 - 1795.6) = 18.58 ETH. The 1.25% risk rule is breached by the 3x leverage and 20% notional mandates, indicating over-allocation.
⊢ size=18.58 (exp 0.6079, err 2956.3%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.608riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
⊢ size=0.608 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.608entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Calculated position size based on 1.25% account risk and stop distance.
⊢ size=0.608 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25