← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH whipsaws around 1815 as funding flips negative and shorts pile in. Given: account $3275, short ETH at 1815.8, stop 1951.99. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.300591085982818, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3008entry 1815.8invalidation 1951.99riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 136.19 per ETH, so size = 40.94/136.19 ≈ 0.3008 ETH, risking 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.3008 (exp 0.3006, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3007entry 1815.8invalidation 1951.99riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 136.19, so size = 40.94/136.19 ≈ 0.3007 ETH, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.3007 (exp 0.3006, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3006riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per ETH is $136.19. Max risk at 1.25% of $3275 is $40.9375. Position size = $40.9375 / $136.19 = 0.3006 ETH. Actual risk is exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=0.3006 (exp 0.3006, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3006riskPct 1.25confidence 0.95
Risk per ETH = 1951.99 - 1815.8 = $136.19; max loss 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; size = $40.94 / $136.19 = 0.3006 ETH, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.3006 (exp 0.3006, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.24047entry 1815.8invalidation 1951.99riskPct 1confidence 1
Adhering to the hard rule of 1% maximum risk per trade, overriding the suggested 1.25%. With a stop distance of $136.19, the position size is capped at 0.24047 ETH to keep risk at exactly 1%.
⊢ size=0.24047 (exp 0.3006, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2404entry 1815.8invalidation 1951.99riskPct 1confidence 1
Hard rules dictate a maximum risk of 1% per trade, overriding the 1.25% house rule. Size is calculated to risk exactly 1% of equity.
⊢ size=0.2404 (exp 0.3006, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3006entry 1815.8invalidation 1951.99leverage 1riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 0.99
Risk per ETH = |1951.99 - 1815.8| = 136.19. Max dollar risk = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 136.19 ≈ 0.3006 ETH, which risks exactly 1.25% of equity. Notional ≈ $546 (~16.7% of equity), well within the 20% cap and 3x leverage limit.
⊢ size=0.3006 (exp 0.3006, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3006entry 1815.8invalidation 1951.99riskPct 0.0125confidence 1
Stop distance = 1951.99 - 1815.8 = 136.19. Risk budget = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.94. Size = $40.94 / 136.19 ≈ 0.3006 ETH, putting exactly 1.25% of equity at risk. Notional ≈ $545.83 (16.7% of equity, well within 20% cap; ~0.17x leverage).
⊢ size=0.3006 (exp 0.3006, err 0.0%), riskPct=0.0125
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.24047riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Stop distance is 136.19 per ETH; capped at the 1% mandate, max risk is $32.75, so size is 32.75 / 136.19 = 0.24047 ETH. The requested 1.25% house risk would exceed the hard risk limit.
⊢ size=0.24047 (exp 0.3006, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.24047riskPct 1confidence 0.99
The stricter mandate caps risk at 1% of equity, not the 1.25% house rule. Dollar risk is $32.75 and stop distance is $136.19, giving 0.24047 ETH at risk of 1.0%.
⊢ size=0.24047 (exp 0.3006, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2405entry 1815.8invalidation 1951.99takeProfit 1543.42leverage 1riskPct 1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.6
Hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% of equity, overriding the 1.25% house rule. Position size is 0.2405 ETH with a 2R take profit target.
⊢ size=0.2405 (exp 0.3006, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2405entry 1815.8invalidation 1951.99riskPct 1confidence 0.3
Hard rule caps risk at 1% ($32.75), overriding the 1.25% house rule; size = 32.75 / (1951.99 - 1815.8) = 0.2405 ETH. Whipsaw price action and crowded shorts with negative funding reduce conviction.
⊢ size=0.2405 (exp 0.3006, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3entry 1815.8invalidation 1951.99riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk budget 1.25% of 3275 allows 40.94 USD; 136.19 USD/ETH stop distance supports 0.3 ETH position for ~1.25% account risk.
⊢ size=0.3 (exp 0.3006, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk distance 136.19, 1.25% of 3275 allows ~40.94 risk, sizing 0.3 ETH.
⊢ size=0.3 (exp 0.3006, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3entry 1815.8invalidation 1951.99riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
The stop distance is 136.19 points; risking 1.25% of $3275 ($40.94) gives ~0.30 ETH size, which keeps risk at the allowed limit.
⊢ size=0.3 (exp 0.3006, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3entry 1815.8invalidation 1951.99riskPct 1.24confidence 0.6
Risk per trade is 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94. Stop distance is 1951.99 - 1815.8 = $136.19. Size = $40.94 / 136.19 = 0.3006 ETH. Actual risk = (0.3 * 136.19) / 3275 = 1.246%.
⊢ size=0.3 (exp 0.3006, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.24
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3006entry 1815.8invalidation 1951.99riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Position size is calculated by dividing the 1.25% risk amount ($40.94) by the stop distance ($136.19), yielding 0.3006 ETH and an exact risk of 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=0.3006 (exp 0.3006, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2404entry 1815.8invalidation 1951.99riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Sized to the 1% hard rule cap (which satisfies the 1.25% house rule limit); stop distance is 136.19, yielding a max size of 0.2404 ETH and 1.0% account risk.
⊢ size=0.2404 (exp 0.3006, err 20.0%), riskPct=1