← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

BTC is consolidating near 66537 after a sharp rejection at resistance, with bulls eyeing a breakout retest. Given: long BTC — entry 66537, stop 64208.2, target 71776.8. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.2499999999999982, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66537invalidation 64208.2takeProfit 71776.8rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk is 2328.8 and reward is 5239.8, giving R:R of 2.25 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66537invalidation 64208.2takeProfit 71776.8rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk is 2328.8 and reward is 5239.8, giving R:R of 2.25 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 1
Reward:risk is 2.25 (5239.8 / 2328.8), exceeding the 2.0 minimum.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66537invalidation 64208.2takeProfit 71776.8rr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward (71776.8 - 66537 = 5239.8) / Risk (66537 - 64208.2 = 2328.8) = 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66537invalidation 64208.2takeProfit 71776.8rr 2.25confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2, allowing the long trade to be taken.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66537invalidation 64208.2takeProfit 71776.8rr 2.25confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66537invalidation 64208.2takeProfit 71776.8rr 2.25confidence 0.55
Reward:risk = (71776.8-66537)/(66537-64208.2) = 5239.8/2328.8 ≈ 2.25, which meets the >=2 threshold. However, the 'sharp rejection at resistance' into consolidation is a mixed/uncertain signal, so confidence is modest despite the favorable R:R.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66537invalidation 64208.2takeProfit 71776.8rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk 2328.8 vs reward 5239.8 gives R:R of 2.25, clearing the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade is approved on a reward:risk basis.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2502791137074896confidence 0.95
Reward is 5239.8 versus risk of 2328.8, giving an R:R above the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.2502791137074896 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.8
Reward is 5239.8 and risk is 2328.8, giving RR 2.25. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade is eligible on RR.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 66537invalidation 64208.2takeProfit 71776.8leverage 3riskPct 0.7rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.25 (>=2 threshold). Position sized to 20% notional at 3x leverage keeps realized risk at 0.7% of equity, within all hard limits.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 66537invalidation 64208.2takeProfit 71776.8leverage 1riskPct 0.7rr 2.25confidence 0.5
R:R of 2.25 meets the minimum 2.0 threshold; sizing capped at 20% notional to keep realized risk at 0.7% given the wide 2328.8-point stop.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.8
RR exactly 2.25 meets the >=2 threshold so the long is valid.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.7
RR exactly 2.25 meets the >=2 threshold so the trade is valid on that rule.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66537invalidation 64208.2takeProfit 71776.8rr 2.26confidence 0.5
The reward:risk ratio is approximately 2.26, which meets the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.26 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.25confidence 0.25
Reward:risk is 2.25 which meets the minimum threshold, but the setup is not taken because consolidation near resistance with sharp rejection suggests weak trend and unclear directional conviction—standing flat per the no-edge gate.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.6
R:R is 5239.8/2328.8 ≈ 2.25, exceeding the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk is 2328.8 points, reward is 5239.8 points, giving R:R of ~2.25 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true