← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

HYPE pops on a fresh exchange listing while bulls chase the breakout above 67.73. Given: long HYPE — entry 67.73, stop 64.68, target 76.12. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.75081967213115, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.73invalidation 64.68takeProfit 76.12rr 2.75confidence 0.6
Risk is 3.05 (67.73-64.68), reward is 8.39 (76.12-67.73), giving R:R of 2.75 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.73invalidation 64.68takeProfit 76.12rr 2.75confidence 0.6
Risk is 3.05 (67.73-64.68), reward is 8.39 (76.12-67.73), giving R:R of 2.75 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.8
Reward:risk is 2.75, exceeding the minimum 2.0, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.5
R:R = (76.12-67.73)/(67.73-64.68) = 8.39/3.05 ≈ 2.75, which is >=2, so the trade passes the reward:risk filter.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.73invalidation 64.68takeProfit 76.12rr 2.75confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.75, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.73invalidation 64.68takeProfit 76.12rr 2.75confidence 0.8
The reward to risk ratio is 2.75, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.73invalidation 64.68takeProfit 76.12rr 2.75confidence 0.7
Risk = 67.73 - 64.68 = 3.05; Reward = 76.12 - 67.73 = 8.39; R:R = 8.39 / 3.05 ≈ 2.75, which exceeds the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is taken.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.73invalidation 64.68takeProfit 76.12rr 2.75confidence 0.7
Reward:risk = (76.12-67.73)/(67.73-64.68) = 8.39/3.05 ≈ 2.75, clearing the 2.0 minimum. Fresh exchange listing provides a clear catalyst-driven momentum edge and a defined breakout level at 67.73, so the trade is taken.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7508196721confidence 0.9
Reward is 8.39 versus risk of 3.05, giving an R:R of about 2.75. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade is eligible on R:R.
⊢ rr=2.7508196721 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.8
Reward is 8.39 versus risk of 3.05, giving an R:R of about 2.75, which meets the minimum 2.0 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.73invalidation 64.68takeProfit 76.12rr 2.75confidence 0.65
Reward:risk is 8.39/3.05 ≈ 2.75, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade qualifies on R:R alone.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 67.73invalidation 64.68takeProfit 76.12leverage 1riskPct 0.9rr 2.75confidence 0.55
R:R of 2.75 exceeds the 2.0 minimum; breakout momentum on fresh listing supports a long, with notional capped at 20% of equity to stay within position limits, yielding ~0.9% risk.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.9
R:R = 8.39 / 3.05 = 2.75 which meets the >=2 threshold so the long is valid.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.73invalidation 64.68takeProfit 76.12rr 2.69confidence 0.7
Reward:risk ratio is (76.12-67.73)/(67.73-64.68) = 8.39/3.05 ≈ 2.75, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.69 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.86confidence 0
The reward:risk is 2.86, which passes the minimum threshold, but the trade is driven by a listing-pop narrative and FOMO, not a structural edge. The entry is on a breakout after a move has already started, creating poor risk management and a high probability of being a liquidity trap. I stand flat.
⊢ rr=2.86 (exp 2.75), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.73invalidation 64.68takeProfit 76.12rr 2.75confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 2.75, exceeding the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade qualifies for a long entry.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.73invalidation 64.68takeProfit 76.12rr 2.75confidence 0.6
R:R = (76.12-67.73)/(67.73-64.68) = 8.39/3.05 ≈ 2.75, exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade is permissible on reward:risk grounds.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true