← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

BTC reclaims 66k after a sharp dip, bulls eye a retest of recent highs. Given: long BTC — entry 66174, stop 63857.91, target 71269.4. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.2000008635243025, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66174invalidation 63857.91takeProfit 71269.4rr 2.2confidence 0.62
Risk 2316.09, reward 5095.4 gives R:R ~2.2, above the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66174invalidation 63857.91takeProfit 71269.4rr 2.2confidence 0.6
Risk is 2316.09, reward is 5095.4, giving R:R ~2.2 which clears the 2:1 minimum, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.5
The reward:risk ratio is 5095.4/2316.09 ≈ 2.2, which meets the minimum requirement of 2.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66174invalidation 63857.91takeProfit 71269.4rr 2.2confidence 1
The calculated reward to risk ratio is 2.2, which satisfies the strict mandate requirement of being greater than or equal to 2.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66174invalidation 63857.91takeProfit 71269.4rr 2.2confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.2, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, allowing the trade to be taken.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66174invalidation 63857.91takeProfit 71269.4rr 2.2confidence 0.6
R:R = (71269.4 - 66174) / (66174 - 63857.91) = 5095.4 / 2316.09 ≈ 2.20, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is permitted on R:R grounds alone.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66174invalidation 63857.91takeProfit 71269.4rr 2.2confidence 0.7
Reward (5095.4) / Risk (2316.09) = 2.20, which meets the minimum 2:1 R:R threshold, so the trade is permissible on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.9
Reward is 5095.4 versus risk of 2316.09, giving an R:R of about 2.2. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade can be taken.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is 2.2, which meets the minimum threshold of 2, so the trade is eligible on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 66174invalidation 63857.91takeProfit 71269.4leverage 1riskPct 0.7rr 2.2confidence 0.65
Reward-to-risk ratio is approximately 2.2 (5095.4 / 2316.09), which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement. Position sized at 20% notional with 1x leverage keeps risk at 0.7% of equity, well within the 1% hard limit.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66174invalidation 63857.91takeProfit 71269.4rr 2.2confidence 0.8
The setup provides a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 2.2, which satisfies the minimum 2.0 R:R requirement, making it a valid trade to take.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.199confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.199 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66174invalidation 63857.91takeProfit 71269.4rr 2.18confidence 0.7
Reward:risk ratio of 2.18 exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, meeting the mandate's requirement for this trade setup.
⊢ rr=2.18 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.18confidence 0.6
Reward:risk of 2.18 meets the minimum threshold of 2, so the trade is permissible. However, confidence is moderate due to lack of context on trend strength, funding, and smart-money positioning.
⊢ rr=2.18 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.8
The reward:risk ratio is approximately 2.2 (5095.4 / 2316.09), which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.198confidence 0.5
Reward is 5095.4 and risk is 2316.09, yielding an R:R of 2.198 which exceeds the minimum threshold of 2, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.198 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true