← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

Bitcoin chops sideways near 66k as traders await the next macro catalyst. Given: account $3750, short BTC at 66335, stop 69320.08. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many BTC do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in BTC) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.01570309673442587, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0157entry 66335invalidation 69320.08riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3750 = $46.875; stop distance = 2985.08, so size = 46.875/2985.08 ≈ 0.0157 BTC, risking ~1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0157entry 66335invalidation 69320.08riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3750 = $46.875; stop distance = 2985.08, giving size ~0.0157 BTC for full 1.25% risk.
⊢ size=0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.015697entry 66335invalidation 69320.08riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per BTC is 2985.08. Max risk 1.25% of $3750 = $46.875. Size = 46.875 / 2985.08 ≈ 0.015697 BTC, risking exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=0.015697 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize -0.0157entry 66335invalidation 69320.08riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Risk budget $46.875 (1.25% of $3750). Stop distance is $2985.08. Size = $46.875 / $2985.08 ≈ -0.0157 BTC. Actual risk 1.25%.
⊢ size=-0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 200.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.011306riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Market is chopping sideways with no clear edge, so standing flat. If traded, size is capped by the 20% max notional rule rather than the 1% risk limit, resulting in 0.9% risk.
⊢ size=0.011306 (exp 0.0157, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.011306riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Standing flat due to sideways chop and no clear edge. Hypothetically, the 20% max notional rule caps the position at $750 (0.0113 BTC), which risks 0.9% of equity, overriding the user's 1.25% rule to strictly adhere to the 1% max risk hard rule.
⊢ size=0.011306 (exp 0.0157, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0157entry 66335invalidation 69320.08riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% × $3750 = $46.875. Stop distance = 69320.08 − 66335 = $2985.08. Size = 46.875 / 2985.08 ≈ 0.01570 BTC, which puts exactly 1.25% of equity at risk. Note: notional ≈ $1041.66 (~27.8% of equity) exceeds the 20% notional cap from the standing mandate, so this sizing would need to be reduced to ~0.01130 BTC to comply.
⊢ size=0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0157entry 66335invalidation 69320.08riskPct 0.0125confidence 0
Sized to the 1.25% house risk cap: max dollar risk = 0.0125 × $3750 = $46.875; stop distance = 69320.08 − 66335 = $2985.08/BTC; size = 46.875 / 2985.08 ≈ 0.0157 BTC, putting exactly 1.25% of equity at risk.
⊢ size=0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=0.0125
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.011306248586718927riskPct 0.9000015075005653confidence 0.95
Position size is capped by the 20% max-notional rule, not the looser 1.25% risk limit; at 0.01130625 BTC, the stop distance risks about 0.90% of equity.
⊢ size=0.011306248586718927 (exp 0.0157, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9000015075005653
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.01256248riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Using the stricter 1% mandate cap, max dollar risk is $37.50; stop distance is $2985.08, so size is 37.50 / 2985.08 = 0.01256248 BTC.
⊢ size=0.01256248 (exp 0.0157, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.015703entry 66335invalidation 69320.08riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size is calculated to risk exactly 1.25% of the $3750 account equity ($46.875) over the 2985.08 stop distance.
⊢ size=0.015703 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.012562riskPct 1confidence 0
Standing flat due to sideways chop and lack of edge. For the hypothetical calculation, hard rules cap risk at 1% ($37.50 / 2985.08), overriding the 1.25% prompt suggestion.
⊢ size=0.012562 (exp 0.0157, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0157riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Size short to cap risk at given 1.25% house limit using stop distance.
⊢ size=0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0157riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget 1.25% of 3750 gives 46.875 USD; distance 2985.08 implies size 0.0157 BTC.
⊢ size=0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.0238riskPct 1.25confidence 1
The user is asking for a size and risk calculation for an existing position with a house rule of 1.25% risk, not for a new trade signal.
⊢ size=0.0238 (exp 0.0157, err 51.6%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.015766riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Calculated position size for existing short. Stop distance of $2985.08 per BTC requires buying 0.015766 BTC to risk exactly $46.875 (1.25% of $3750 account).
⊢ size=0.015766 (exp 0.0157, err 0.4%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0113entry 66335invalidation 69320.08riskPct 0.9confidence 0.9
Position size capped by the 20% max notional hard rule (750 USD notional = 0.0113 BTC), resulting in an actual risk of 0.9% of equity, which is within the 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=0.0113 (exp 0.0157, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
— no answer
no answer