← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

HYPE is consolidating after a sharp rally, and you want a tight leash on this entry. Given: account $3450, short HYPE at 67.88, stop 69.75. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many HYPE do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in HYPE) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 23.061497326203153, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 23.06entry 67.88invalidation 69.75riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Risk budget 1.25% of $3450 = $43.13; stop distance 1.87 gives 23.06 HYPE, risking 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=23.06 (exp 23.0615, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 23.06entry 67.88invalidation 69.75riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Max risk 1.25% of $3450 = $43.125; stop distance 69.75-67.88 = $1.87, so size = 43.125/1.87 ≈ 23.06 HYPE, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=23.06 (exp 23.0615, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.165sizePct 0.2entry 67.88invalidation 69.75leverage 1riskPct 0.551compliant truemaxNotional 690confidence 0.8
To obey the hard notional limit of 20% equity, maximum size is 10.165 HYPE, risking 0.551% of account, within the 1.25% rule.
⊢ size=10.165 (exp 23.0615, err 55.9%), riskPct=0.551
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.16sizePct 0.2entry 67.88invalidation 69.75leverage 1riskPct 0.55compliant truemaxNotional 690confidence 0.8
Adjusted size to comply with 20% notional cap ($690), resulting in 10.16 HYPE short. Actual risk is 0.55% of account.
⊢ size=10.16 (exp 23.0615, err 55.9%), riskPct=0.55
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.165sizePct 0.2entry 67.88invalidation 69.75leverage 1riskPct 0.551maxNotional 690confidence 1
Although the house rule allows 1.25% risk, the hard rule caps risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity ($690). The notional limit restricts the size to 10.165 HYPE, resulting in a realized risk of 0.551%.
⊢ size=10.165 (exp 23.0615, err 55.9%), riskPct=0.551
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.165sizePct 0.2entry 67.88invalidation 69.75leverage 1riskPct 0.55maxNotional 690confidence 1
While the requested risk is 1.25%, hard rules cap risk at 1% and max notional at 20% of equity ($690). The 20% notional limit is the strictest constraint here, capping the size at 10.165 HYPE and reducing the actual risk to 0.55%.
⊢ size=10.165 (exp 23.0615, err 55.9%), riskPct=0.55
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 23.06entry 67.88invalidation 69.75riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Max risk = 1.25% × $3450 = $43.125; risk per HYPE = 69.75 − 67.88 = $1.87; size = 43.125 / 1.87 ≈ 23.06 HYPE, which puts exactly 1.25% of equity at risk on the stop. Note: resulting notional (~$1565, ~45% of equity) exceeds the 20% notional cap, so a leverage adjustment would be needed to stay fully compliant.
⊢ size=23.06 (exp 23.0615, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 23.06entry 67.88invalidation 69.75riskPct 0.0125confidence 0.5
Risk-based sizing on the short: stop distance = 69.75 - 67.88 = $1.87 per HYPE. Max risk = 1.25% * $3,450 = $43.125. Size = 43.125 / 1.87 = 23.06 HYPE, putting exactly 1.25% of equity at risk. Note: resulting notional (~23.06 * 67.88 = $1,565) is ~45% of equity, which exceeds a typical 20% notional cap — execution should be scaled down to satisfy both risk and notional limits before placing the order.
⊢ size=23.06 (exp 23.0615, err 0.0%), riskPct=0.0125
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.165riskPct 0.551confidence 0.99
Position size is capped by the 20% max-notional mandate: $690 / 67.88 = 10.165 HYPE. With a $1.87 stop distance, actual risk is about $19.01, or 0.551% of the $3450 account.
⊢ size=10.165 (exp 23.0615, err 55.9%), riskPct=0.551
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.165riskPct 0.551confidence 0.9
Position size is capped by the 20% max-notional rule before the risk cap: $690 / 67.88 = 10.165 HYPE. At a $1.87 stop distance, this risks about $19.01, or 0.551% of the $3450 account.
⊢ size=10.165 (exp 23.0615, err 55.9%), riskPct=0.551
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.165entry 67.88invalidation 69.75riskPct 0.55compliant truemaxNotional 690confidence 0.8
Hard rules override the 1.25% house rule, capping max risk at 1%. Size is further restricted to 10.165 HYPE to ensure the position's notional value does not exceed the 20% of equity hard limit ($690), yielding an actual risk of 0.55%.
⊢ size=10.165 (exp 23.0615, err 55.9%), riskPct=0.55
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.16entry 67.88invalidation 69.75leverage 1riskPct 0.55compliant truemaxNotional 690confidence 0.5
Position size is capped at 10.16 HYPE to strictly enforce the hard limit that notional cannot exceed 20% of equity ($690), which restricts the actual risk to 0.55% rather than the proposed 1.25%.
⊢ size=10.16 (exp 23.0615, err 55.9%), riskPct=0.55
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 23riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk 1.25% ($43.125) on 1.87$ stop distance allows 23 HYPE short.
⊢ size=23 (exp 23.0615, err 0.3%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 23.0588riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Max size from 1.25% equity risk on 1.87 stop distance yields 23.0588 HYPE.
⊢ size=23.0588 (exp 23.0615, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 23.19entry 67.88invalidation 69.75riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Shorting HYPE at 67.88 with a stop at 69.75, risking 1.25% of account ($43.125) yields a position size of ~23.19 HYPE. This complies with the house rule.
⊢ size=23.19 (exp 23.0615, err 0.6%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 23.18entry 67.88invalidation 69.75riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Sizing calculated to risk exactly 1.25% of the $3450 account on a short entry at 67.88 with a stop at 69.75.
⊢ size=23.18 (exp 23.0615, err 0.5%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 23.05entry 67.88invalidation 69.75riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position sized to the 1.25% house rule risk limit, resulting in 23.05 HYPE units based on the $1.87 stop distance.
⊢ size=23.05 (exp 23.0615, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 18.45entry 67.88invalidation 69.75riskPct 1confidence 0.8
Hard rule caps risk at 1% of equity ($34.50), overriding the 1.25% house rule. Size is $34.50 / $1.87 stop distance = 18.45 HYPE.
⊢ size=18.45 (exp 23.0615, err 20.0%), riskPct=1