← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

HYPE catches a bid as funding flips positive across major venues. Given: long HYPE — entry 69.61, stop 66.48, target 76.5. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.2012779552715687, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 69.61invalidation 66.48takeProfit 76.5rr 2.2confidence 0.65
Risk is 3.13 (69.61-66.48), reward is 6.89 (76.5-69.61), giving R:R ~2.2 which clears the 2.0 minimum; funding flip positive supports the long.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 69.61invalidation 66.48takeProfit 76.5rr 2.2confidence 0.6
Risk 3.13, reward 6.89, R:R ~2.2 which meets the >=2 threshold; funding flip with bid supports the long.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2013confidence 0.8
HYPE funding positive, RR=2.20 meets minimum.
⊢ rr=2.2013 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 1
Reward is 6.89, risk is 3.13, giving a ratio of 2.20, which meets the 2:1 minimum requirement.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 69.61invalidation 66.48takeProfit 76.5rr 2.201confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.20, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.201 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 69.61invalidation 66.48takeProfit 76.5rr 2.2confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.20, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.7
Reward (6.89) / Risk (3.13) = 2.20, which meets the >=2 R:R threshold, so the trade is permissible on this filter.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 69.61invalidation 66.48takeProfit 76.5rr 2.2confidence 0.7
Risk = 69.61 - 66.48 = 3.13; Reward = 76.5 - 69.61 = 6.89; RR = 6.89/3.13 ≈ 2.20, which meets the >=2 threshold. Funding flipping positive adds a soft confirmation. Trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2012779553confidence 0.95
Reward is 6.89 versus risk of 3.13, giving an R:R above the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies on reward:risk.
⊢ rr=2.2012779553 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.8
Reward:risk is approximately 2.20, which meets the minimum requirement of 2.0, so the trade is eligible.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 69.61invalidation 66.48takeProfit 76.5rr 2.2confidence 0.65
Reward:risk is 6.89/3.13 ≈ 2.20, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold. Positive funding flip supports long bias.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 69.61invalidation 66.48takeProfit 76.5rr 2.2confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 6.89/3.13 ≈ 2.20, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold. Positive funding flip and bid catching support the long thesis.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.7
RR=2.2 meets minimum threshold of 2
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatentry 69.61invalidation 66.48takeProfit 76.5rr 2.13confidence 0.95
Reward:Risk is (76.5 - 69.61) / (69.61 - 66.48) = 6.89 / 3.13 = 2.20, which meets the >= 2 requirement. However, funding flipping positive across major venues suggests overcrowded long positioning, increasing squeeze risk. I will pass on this trade due to crowded positioning risk.
⊢ rr=2.13 (exp 2.20), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 69.61invalidation 66.48takeProfit 76.5rr 2.2confidence 0.65
Reward:risk is approximately 2.2 ((76.5 - 69.61) / (69.61 - 66.48)), meeting the 2.0 minimum threshold; positive funding flip supports a long bias, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.8
Reward is 6.89 versus risk of 3.13, yielding an R:R of 2.2 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 69.61invalidation 66.48takeProfit 76.5rr 2.2confidence 0.55
R:R of 2.2 meets the minimum 2:1 threshold; positive funding flip supports directional bias.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true