← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH chops sideways as traders await a key Layer-2 upgrade announcement. Given: account $3850, short ETH at 1775, stop 1854.87. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.602541630148993, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6029entry 1775invalidation 1854.87riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Stop distance is 79.87; max risk 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125, so size = 48.125/79.87 ≈ 0.6029 ETH, risking 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.6029 (exp 0.6025, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6028entry 1775invalidation 1854.87takeProfit 1615.26riskPct 1.25confidence 0.55
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $79.87, so size = 48.13/79.87 ≈ 0.6028 ETH, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.6028 (exp 0.6025, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Max risk is 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. Stop distance is 1854.87 - 1775 = 79.87. Size = $48.125 / 79.87 ≈ 0.6 ETH. Risk is exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.6 (exp 0.6025, err 0.4%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6026entry 1775invalidation 1854.87riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget is 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125; stop distance = 79.87; position size = $48.125 / $79.87 ≈ 0.6026 ETH, resulting in 1.25% account risk.
⊢ size=0.6026 (exp 0.6025, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.4338riskPct 0.9confidence 1
The 20% notional limit caps the position at 0.4338 ETH (0.9% risk), overriding the 1% risk limit, but we stand flat due to sideways chop and an impending announcement.
⊢ size=0.4338 (exp 0.6025, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 1
ETH is chopping sideways ahead of a key announcement, presenting no edge. Additionally, the suggested 1.25% risk violates the 1% hard limit, and the 20% max notional rule would cap any theoretical position to 0.4338 ETH (0.9% risk). Standing flat.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.6025, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6025entry 1775invalidation 1854.87leverage 0.278riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk-based sizing: 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125; risk per ETH = $79.87; size = 0.6025 ETH.
⊢ size=0.6025 (exp 0.6025, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6025entry 1775invalidation 1854.87riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per ETH = 1854.87 - 1775 = 79.87. Max $ risk = 1.25% × $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 79.87 ≈ 0.6025 ETH. Actual risk = 1.25% by construction. Note: notional ≈ $1069 (27.8% of equity) exceeds the 20% notional cap; size would need to be capped at ~0.4338 ETH to satisfy that constraint.
⊢ size=0.6025 (exp 0.6025, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.4820333041191937riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Using the stricter 1% max risk mandate, risk budget is $38.50 and stop distance is $79.87 per ETH, giving a maximum size of 0.482033 ETH. This places exactly 1.0% of account equity at risk.
⊢ size=0.4820333041191937 (exp 0.6025, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 0.86
ETH is described as chopping sideways ahead of a key announcement, so there is no clear edge and the correct decision is to stand flat. No position is opened, so size and account risk are both zero.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.6025, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.4338entry 1775invalidation 1854.87riskPct 0.9confidence 0.4
Hard rules cap risk at 1% ($38.50) which implies 0.482 ETH, but the 20% notional cap ($770) is more restrictive, limiting size to 0.4338 ETH. Actual risk is 0.4338 × 79.87 = $34.65, or 0.9% of equity. ETH is chopping sideways with no clear edge, so this trade has low confidence.
⊢ size=0.4338 (exp 0.6025, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.482entry 1775invalidation 1854.87riskPct 1confidence 0.5
System hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% of equity per trade, overriding the 1.25% house rule. Size is calculated as 1% of $3850 divided by the 79.87 stop distance.
⊢ size=0.482 (exp 0.6025, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6025riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk 1.25% of 3850 equals 48.125 USD; distance to stop 79.87 USD implies 0.6025 ETH short size.
⊢ size=0.6025 (exp 0.6025, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsize 0.6025riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk budget 1.25% of 3850 equals 48.125 USD; distance to stop 79.87 USD implies 0.6025 ETH position size.
⊢ size=0.6025 (exp 0.6025, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6entry 1775invalidation 1854.87riskPct 1.25confidence 0.75
Risk per trade is capped at 1.25% of account, which is $48.125. The stop distance is $79.87 per ETH, so size = $48.125 / $79.87 ≈ 0.6025 ETH, rounded to 0.6 ETH. Actual risk is 0.6 * $79.87 = $47.922, or 1.245% of account.
⊢ size=0.6 (exp 0.6025, err 0.4%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Sideways chop and an upcoming high-impact announcement create no edge. Standing flat is the correct move, but I provide the requested calculation: at the max 1.25% risk, the short size is ~0.0605 ETH (size = (account * risk%) / (stop - entry) = 48.125 / 79.87).
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.6025, err 100.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.4821entry 1775invalidation 1854.87riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Hard rule caps risk at 1% of equity ($38.50) overriding the 1.25% house rule. Stop distance is $79.87, yielding a size of 0.4821 ETH and an actual risk of 1.0%.
⊢ size=0.4821 (exp 0.6025, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6025entry 1775invalidation 1854.87riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Position size is calculated by dividing the max risk amount ($48.125) by the stop distance ($79.87), yielding 0.6025 ETH, which puts exactly 1.25% of the account at risk.
⊢ size=0.6025 (exp 0.6025, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25