← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

SOL is grinding higher on rising network activity but faces resistance overhead. Given: long SOL — entry 73.23, stop 69.93, target 80.82. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.2999999999999985, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 73.23invalidation 69.93takeProfit 80.82rr 2.3confidence 0.62
Risk 3.30, reward 7.59, R:R ~2.3 meets the >=2 threshold; rising activity supports the long despite overhead resistance.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 73.23invalidation 69.93takeProfit 80.82rr 2.3confidence 0.62
Risk is 3.30 (73.23-69.93), reward is 7.59 (80.82-73.23), giving R:R of ~2.3 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.8
Reward (80.82 - 73.23 = 7.59) divided by risk (73.23 - 69.93 = 3.30) equals 2.3, which meets the >=2 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 73.23invalidation 69.93takeProfit 80.82rr 2.3confidence 0.6
Risk is 3.30 (73.23-69.93), reward is 7.59 (80.82-73.23), giving R:R of 2.30. This meets the minimum 2.0 requirement. Taking the long.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 73.23invalidation 69.93takeProfit 80.82rr 2.3confidence 1
The calculated reward to risk ratio is 2.3, which satisfies the strict mandate requirement of being greater than or equal to 2.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 73.23invalidation 69.93takeProfit 80.82rr 2.3confidence 0.8
The reward to risk ratio is 2.30, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0. The trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 73.23invalidation 69.93takeProfit 80.82compliant truerr 2.3confidence 0.72
Reward 7.59 vs risk 3.30 yields R:R of 2.30, which clears the >=2 mandate threshold, so the long is acceptable on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatentry 73.23invalidation 69.93takeProfit 80.82rr 1.01confidence 0.2
Reward:risk is (80.82-73.23)/(73.23-69.93) = 7.59/3.30 ≈ 2.30, which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is technically permissible on R:R grounds. However, the setup description (grinding higher into overhead resistance) suggests a choppy, mean-reversion-prone tape; combined with no clear edge confirmation, standing flat is the disciplined choice.
⊢ rr=1.01 (exp 2.30), took=false canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.95
Reward is 7.59 and risk is 3.30, giving an R:R of 2.3. This meets the minimum reward:risk threshold of 2, so the trade can be taken.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.8
Reward is 7.59 and risk is 3.30, giving an R:R of 2.3, which meets the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 73.23invalidation 69.93takeProfit 80.82rr 2.3confidence 0.65
Reward:risk is 2.30 (7.59 / 3.30), which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold. SOL is grinding higher on rising network activity, supporting a long bias despite overhead resistance.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 7.59/3.30 = 2.30, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 73.23invalidation 69.93takeProfit 80.82rr 2.27confidence 0.8
Reward:risk is 2.27 (target 7.59 vs stop 3.30), exceeding the 2.0 minimum, and the setup aligns with rising network activity, justifying a long entry.
⊢ rr=2.27 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.28confidence 0.65
The reward:risk ratio is 2.28 which meets the minimum threshold of 2, but the trade setup shows overhead resistance and a grinding price action which suggests weak momentum. No clear edge for a high-conviction trade.
⊢ rr=2.28 (exp 2.30), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.5
⊢ missing rr
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 73.23invalidation 69.93takeProfit 80.82rr 2.3confidence 0.5
Risk is 3.30, reward is 7.59, giving R:R of 2.30 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum — trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true