← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

HYPE is consolidating after a sharp rally and you want a measured entry before the next leg. Given: account $3850, short HYPE at 67.71, stop 70.62. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many HYPE do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in HYPE) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 16.537800687285163, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.54entry 67.71invalidation 70.62riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = 2.91, so size = 48.13/2.91 ≈ 16.54 HYPE, realizing the full 1.25% risk.
⊢ size=16.54 (exp 16.5378, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.54entry 67.71invalidation 70.62takeProfit 61.89riskPct 1.25confidence 0.55
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = 2.91, so size = 48.13/2.91 ≈ 16.54 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=16.54 (exp 16.5378, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.54riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per unit = 70.62 - 67.71 = 2.91. Max loss = 0.0125 * 3850 = 48.125. Size = 48.125 / 2.91 ≈ 16.54 HYPE.
⊢ size=16.54 (exp 16.5378, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.54riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max loss $48.12 (1.25% of $3850) divided by loss per HYPE $2.91 gives size 16.54 HYPE.
⊢ size=16.54 (exp 16.5378, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.37entry 67.71invalidation 70.62riskPct 0.86confidence 1
Although the house rule allows 1.25% risk, the hard mandate caps risk at 1% and max notional at 20% of equity ($770). The 20% notional limit is the bottleneck here, restricting the size to 11.37 HYPE and yielding an actual risk of 0.86%.
⊢ size=11.37 (exp 16.5378, err 31.2%), riskPct=0.86
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.37sizePct 0.2entry 67.71invalidation 70.62leverage 1riskPct 0.86maxNotional 770confidence 1
Despite the 1.25% house rule, hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% and max notional at 20% of equity ($770). The 20% notional limit is the binding constraint here, restricting size to 11.37 HYPE and realized risk to 0.86%.
⊢ size=11.37 (exp 16.5378, err 31.2%), riskPct=0.86
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.54riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.9
Stop distance = 70.62 - 67.71 = $2.91 per HYPE. Max risk = 1.25% × $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 2.91 ≈ 16.54 HYPE. Note: 1.25% exceeds the 1% per-trade cap in the standing mandate, so compliance is flagged false; sizing is shown per the scenario's house rule.
⊢ size=16.54 (exp 16.5378, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.54entry 67.71invalidation 70.62riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.4
Risk-based sizing: $48.13 risk (1.25% of $3850) / $2.91 stop distance = 16.54 HYPE, giving 1.25% actual risk. However, notional is 16.54 × $67.71 = $1,119.93 = 29.1% of equity, which violates the 20% max-notional hard rule, so this trade is not compliant as sized. To comply, size must be capped at 11.37 HYPE (notional $770), reducing risk to ~0.86%.
⊢ size=16.54 (exp 16.5378, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.372riskPct 0.86confidence 0.99
Using the stricter mandate, position size is capped by 20% max notional: $770 / 67.71 = 11.372 HYPE. With a $2.91 stop distance, actual risk is about $33.09, or 0.86% of the $3850 account.
⊢ size=11.372 (exp 16.5378, err 31.2%), riskPct=0.86
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.372riskPct 0.86confidence 0.9
Position size is capped by the 20% max-notional rule: $770 / 67.71 = 11.372 HYPE. With a $2.91 stop distance, this risks about $33.09, or 0.86% of the $3850 account.
⊢ size=11.372 (exp 16.5378, err 31.2%), riskPct=0.86
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.54entry 67.71invalidation 70.62riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0
Sizing to the stated 1.25% risk gives 48.125 / 2.91 = 16.54 HYPE, but this violates the hard 1% max-risk rule and the 20% max-notional constraint (notional would be ~29% of equity), so the trade as specified is non-compliant.
⊢ size=16.54 (exp 16.5378, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.37entry 67.71invalidation 70.62riskPct 0.86confidence 0.8
Position size is capped by the 20% max notional hard rule ($770), restricting size to 11.37 HYPE. This results in an actual risk of 0.86%, strictly complying with the 1% max risk hard rule and rejecting the 1.25% prompt trap.
⊢ size=11.37 (exp 16.5378, err 31.2%), riskPct=0.86
grok-4.3
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.37riskPct 0.86confidence 0.7
Capped by 20% notional limit; risk distance 2.91 yields 0.86% equity risk.
⊢ size=11.37 (exp 16.5378, err 31.2%), riskPct=0.86
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.54riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Size to risk exactly 1.25% given stop distance of 2.91 on $3850 account.
⊢ size=16.54 (exp 16.5378, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortentry 67.71invalidation 70.62confidence 0
This is a compliance/calculation check. The position is a short at 67.71 with stop at 70.62, but no size is given to calculate riskPct, and no takeProfit is given to calculate R:R.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortentry 67.71invalidation 70.62riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
House rule risk is 1.25% of account. Stop distance is 2.91. Size = (account * riskPct) / stop distance = (3850 * 0.0125) / 2.91 ≈ 16.54 HYPE. Actual risk is 1.25% as specified.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.54entry 67.71invalidation 70.62riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk amount = 3850 × 1.25% = $48.125; stop distance = 70.62 − 67.71 = $2.91; size = 48.125 / 2.91 ≈ 16.54 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=16.54 (exp 16.5378, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortentry 67.71invalidation 70.62confidence 0.5
⊢ missing size or riskPct