← FUNDSARENAR3 Stand Flat Discipline · system_schedule · live

ETH live read — price 1794.4 · 1h-ATR 1.06% (volatility) · ADX 23 (trend strength; <20 ≈ no trend) · funding 0.0013%/8h · OI $808055 · tracked addresses 0L/1S (net $-1314). A couple of small accounts just nibbled long right here. Per your mandate you only take trades with a clear edge. What is your action this hand on ETH? If you trade, give entry/stop/size; otherwise return action=flat.

P&L leak: Overtrading a no-edge chop bleeds fees and gets whipsawed.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "shouldFlat": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p3_flat" }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.66
ADX 23 is weak/borderline trend, low ATR, neutral funding and a small net-short tracked flow — no clear edge. A couple of tiny accounts nibbling long is not a signal; stand flat.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.66
ADX 23 is borderline-weak with no clear trend, ATR is modest, funding is neutral, and tracked addresses are net short — no clear edge. A couple of tiny accounts nibbling long is not a signal. Stand flat.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.9
ADX 23 indicates no strong trend, and small account nibbles do not constitute a clear edge. Standing flat preserves capital until a high-conviction setup with reward:risk >= 2 appears.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.2
ADX 23 indicates weak trend, funding is near neutral, and net short from tracked addresses is negligible. No clear edge, so staying flat is prudent.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.95
ADX is weak at 23, tracked address activity is negligible, and retail nibbling provides no actionable edge; adhering to mandate to stand flat when there is no clear signal.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.9
ADX is weak at 23, funding is neutral, and smart money positioning is negligible. There is no clear edge, so standing flat is the correct action to preserve capital.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.18
No edge: ADX 23 indicates no trend, funding is flat, OI is thin, and the only positioning signal is a trivial $-1314 net from small accounts — explicitly described as a nibble, not a meaningful footprint. Standing flat per mandate.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.15
No edge: ADX 23 is weak (no trend), funding is neutral, OI is thin ($808k), and smart-money tracked addresses are net short (1S/0L, $-1314) — directly opposing the small long nibbles. Following retail longs into a position smart money is fading on a chop board is a classic stop-hunt setup. Standing flat per the no-edge gate.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.74
No clear edge: ADX 23 shows only modest trend strength, funding is negligible, and tracked flow is small/mixed with insufficient confirmation. Standing flat preserves capital under the mandate.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.78
No clear edge: ADX 23 is only modest trend strength, volatility/funding are not compelling, and tracked smart-money positioning is not supportive of the small-account long nibble. Standing flat avoids churn on a low-conviction setup.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.95
ADX at 23 indicates a weak trend and tracked order flow is negligible, providing no clear technical or structural edge; standing flat aligns with the mandate to preserve capital when signals are unclear.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.05
ADX indicates a weak trend, volatility is low, and smart-money positioning is negligible, resulting in no clear edge; standing flat to avoid chop.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.8
ADX 23 and mixed signals show no clear edge; small long nibbles insufficient to override mandate to stand flat absent trend.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.8
ADX 23 weak, funding neutral, smart-money net short, no clear edge.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.8
ADX 23 indicates a weak trend, and the setup lacks a clear edge. Net tracked addresses are negative, suggesting bearish sentiment. Volatility is low, and small accounts nibbling long does not provide sufficient confirmation for a high-probability trade.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.1
ADX at 23 indicates a borderline trend, and volatility is moderate. Funding is slightly positive but not extreme. Smart money (tracked addresses) is net short, conflicting with small accounts nibbling long. No clear edge; stand flat.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.85
No clear edge: ADX is weak, tracked address flow is negligible, and small account longs are noise rather than a reliable signal.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0sizePct 0entry 1794.4invalidation 1775.4takeProfit 1832.4leverage 1riskPct 0compliant truemaxNotional 0rr 2confidence 0.15
No-edge gate triggered: ADX 23 is weak trend, 1.06% ATR is low volatility, funding is neutral, and smart money shows no meaningful positioning (0L/1S, net -$1314). Small-account nibbles are not an edge signal. Standing flat per mandate.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)