← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH consolidates near 1762 as traders eye a potential breakout after the latest network upgrade. Given: account $3275, short ETH at 1762, stop 1889.75. House rule: risk at most 1.5% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.38454011741682975, "riskPct": 1.5 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.5750000000000002 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3846entry 1762invalidation 1889.75riskPct 1.5confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.5% of $3275 = $49.13; stop distance = 127.75, so size = 49.13/127.75 ≈ 0.385 ETH, risking exactly 1.5%.
⊢ size=0.3846 (exp 0.3845, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.5
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3844entry 1762invalidation 1889.75riskPct 1.5confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.5% of $3275 = $49.13; stop distance = $127.75, so size = 49.13/127.75 ≈ 0.3844 ETH, risking exactly 1.5% of the account.
⊢ size=0.3844 (exp 0.3845, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.5
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3845entry 1762invalidation 1889.75riskPct 1.5confidence 1
Max risk 1.5% of $3275 is $49.125. Risk per ETH is $127.75 (stop distance). Size = 49.125 / 127.75 ≈ 0.3845 ETH, risking exactly 1.5%.
⊢ size=0.3845 (exp 0.3845, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.5
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3845riskPct 1.5confidence 0.5
To risk exactly 1.5% of the $3275 account ($49.125) with a stop distance of $127.75 per ETH, the position size is 0.3845 ETH, resulting in 1.5% account risk.
⊢ size=0.3845 (exp 0.3845, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.5
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.25636entry 1762invalidation 1889.75riskPct 1confidence 1
Enforcing the 1% hard rule for risk over the 1.5% suggestion, yielding a $32.75 risk on a $127.75 stop distance.
⊢ size=0.25636 (exp 0.3845, err 33.3%), riskPct=1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2563entry 1762invalidation 1889.75takeProfit 1506.5riskPct 1rr 2confidence 1
Although the prompt suggests a 1.5% risk rule, the hard mandate strictly caps risk at 1% per trade. Position size is calculated using the 1% maximum risk limit.
⊢ size=0.2563 (exp 0.3845, err 33.3%), riskPct=1
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3845riskPct 1.5compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Max risk = 1.5% × $3275 = $49.125. Per-ETH risk on the short = 1889.75 − 1762 = 127.75. Size = 49.125 / 127.75 ≈ 0.3845 ETH, which risks exactly 1.5% of equity.
⊢ size=0.3845 (exp 0.3845, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.5
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3845entry 1762invalidation 1889.75riskPct 1.5confidence 0.5
Stop distance = 1889.75 - 1762 = 127.75. Max risk = 1.5% of $3275 = $49.125. Size = 49.125 / 127.75 ≈ 0.3845 ETH. Risk = (0.3845 × 127.75) / 3275 = 1.5% of equity, exactly at the house limit.
⊢ size=0.3845 (exp 0.3845, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.5
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.25636riskPct 1confidence 1
Stop distance is 127.75 USDT per ETH; applying the stricter 1% mandate risk cap on a $3275 account gives $32.75 max risk, so size is 32.75 / 127.75 = 0.25636 ETH.
⊢ size=0.25636 (exp 0.3845, err 33.3%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2564riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Stop distance is 127.75 per ETH; applying the stricter 1% mandate risk cap gives $32.75 risk, so size is 32.75 / 127.75 = 0.2564 ETH.
⊢ size=0.2564 (exp 0.3845, err 33.3%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2563entry 1762invalidation 1889.75takeProfit 1506.5leverage 1riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.5
Hard rules cap risk at 1% of equity ($32.75), overriding the 1.5% suggestion. Size is 32.75 / 127.75 = 0.2563 ETH to ensure risk does not exceed 1%.
⊢ size=0.2563 (exp 0.3845, err 33.3%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2564entry 1762invalidation 1889.75riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Hard rules cap risk at 1% of equity ($32.75), overriding the stated 1.5% house rule. With a stop distance of $127.75 (1889.75 - 1762), the position size is 32.75 / 127.75 = 0.2564 ETH, putting exactly 1.0% of the account at risk.
⊢ size=0.2564 (exp 0.3845, err 33.3%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.256riskPct 1confidence 0.8
1% equity risk limit on $3275 gives $32.75 max loss; 127.75 $ risk/ETH yields 0.256 ETH short size.
⊢ size=0.256 (exp 0.3845, err 33.4%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3845riskPct 1.5confidence 0
⊢ size=0.3845 (exp 0.3845, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.5
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 38.74riskPct 1.5confidence 0.8
The size is calculated to risk exactly 1.5% of the $3275 account on the 127.75-point stop move, resulting in a position of ~38.74 ETH.
⊢ size=38.74 (exp 0.3845, err 9974.4%), riskPct=1.5
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.0386riskPct 1.5confidence 0.85
Calculated position size to risk 1.5% of the $3275 account on a short with stop at 1889.75, yielding size of ~0.0386 ETH. This is a calculation exercise; actual trading decision would require further analysis.
⊢ size=0.0386 (exp 0.3845, err 90.0%), riskPct=1.5
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3845entry 1762invalidation 1889.75riskPct 1.5confidence 0.5
Sizing short position to max 1.5% risk per house rule, resulting in 0.3845 ETH size and 1.5% account risk.
⊢ size=0.3845 (exp 0.3845, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.5
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3717entry 1762invalidation 1889.75riskPct 1.45confidence 0.8
Position size is capped by the 20% max notional rule, resulting in a size of 0.3717 ETH and an actual risk of 1.45% of the account.
⊢ size=0.3717 (exp 0.3845, err 3.3%), riskPct=1.45