← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

BTC churns near 66439 as funding flips negative and a CPI print looms. Given: account $2750, short BTC at 66439, stop 68764.36. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many BTC do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in BTC) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.014782657308975811, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.014782entry 66439invalidation 68764.36riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Stop distance is 2325.36; risking 1.25% of $2750 ($34.375) gives 0.01478 BTC. Note: CPI print looming means no new position within 30 min of high-impact data, so I'd stand flat despite the sizing math.
⊢ size=0.014782 (exp 0.0148, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.014778entry 66439invalidation 68764.36riskPct 1.25confidence 0.3
Sizing math: risk budget 1.25% of $2750 = $34.375; stop distance $2325.36 gives 0.01478 BTC at exactly 1.25% risk. However, CPI looms and no new positions should be opened within 30 min of high-impact data, so stand flat despite the calc.
⊢ size=0.014778 (exp 0.0148, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01478295entry 66439invalidation 68764.36riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 1
Risk per BTC = stop - entry = 2325.36. Max loss 1.25% of $2750 = $34.375. Size = 34.375 / 2325.36 = 0.014783 BTC (rounded). Actual risk percent = 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.01478295 (exp 0.0148, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0148riskPct 1.25confidence 0
To risk exactly 1.25% of $2750 ($34.375) on a short from 66439 with a stop at 68764.36, the dollar risk per BTC is 2325.36. Dividing $34.375 by $2325.36 gives approximately 0.01478 BTC, rounded to 0.0148 BTC. This makes the account risk exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.0148 (exp 0.0148, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.00828entry 66439invalidation 68764.36riskPct 0.7confidence 1
Standing flat due to the looming CPI print. If traded, size is capped by the 20% max notional rule ($550), limiting risk to 0.7%.
⊢ size=0.00828 (exp 0.0148, err 44.0%), riskPct=0.7
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.008278riskPct 0.7confidence 1
A CPI print looms, triggering the hard rule to stand flat before high-impact data. If traded, size would be capped by the 20% max notional rule ($550) rather than the 1% risk rule, limiting size to 0.008278 BTC and actual risk to 0.7%.
⊢ size=0.008278 (exp 0.0148, err 44.0%), riskPct=0.7
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.1183entry 66439invalidation 68764.36riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per BTC = 68764.36 - 66439 = 2325.36. Max risk $ = 2750 * 0.0125 = 34.375. Size = 34.375 / 2325.36 ≈ 0.0148 BTC. Risk% = 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.1183 (exp 0.0148, err 700.3%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01478riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per BTC = 68764.36 - 66439 = 2325.36. Max dollar risk = 1.25% * 2750 = 34.375. Size = 34.375 / 2325.36 = 0.01478 BTC. At this size the account is exposed to exactly 1.25% of equity. Note: notional = 0.01478 * 66439 ≈ $982, which is ~35.7% of equity and exceeds the 20% notional cap from the mandate — the notional constraint would bind first, limiting size to 0.00828 BTC (≈$550 notional, ≈0.70% risk).
⊢ size=0.01478 (exp 0.0148, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.011826riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Using the mandate's hard 1% risk cap overrides the 1.25% house rule. With $27.50 risk allowed and $2325.36 stop distance, size is $27.50 / $2325.36 = 0.011826 BTC.
⊢ size=0.011826 (exp 0.0148, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.00827827riskPct 0.7confidence 0.9
Position size is capped by the 20% max-notional mandate: $550 / 66439 = 0.00827827 BTC. With a 2325.36 stop distance, this risks about $19.25, or 0.7% of the $2750 account.
⊢ size=0.00827827 (exp 0.0148, err 44.0%), riskPct=0.7
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01478entry 66439invalidation 68764.36riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size is calculated by taking 1.25% of the $2750 equity ($34.375) and dividing by the 2325.36 stop distance.
⊢ size=0.01478 (exp 0.0148, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.008278sizePct 0.2entry 66439invalidation 68764.36takeProfit 61788.28leverage 1riskPct 0.7compliant truemaxNotional 550rr 2confidence 0
Standing flat due to looming CPI print (high-impact data rule). Hypothetical calculation caps size at the 20% max notional hard rule, resulting in 0.7% actual risk and overriding the 1.25% request.
⊢ size=0.008278 (exp 0.0148, err 44.0%), riskPct=0.7
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0148riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Max risk 1.25% of 2750 gives 34.375 USD; distance 2325.36 implies size 0.0148 BTC.
⊢ size=0.0148 (exp 0.0148, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0148riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk 1.25% ($34.375) on 2325.36 $ stop distance yields 0.0148 BTC short.
⊢ size=0.0148 (exp 0.0148, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortentry 66439invalidation 68764.36riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
House rule caps risk at 1.25%, not 1%. Stop distance is 2325.36 points; position size is determined by stop distance and max risk. Size = (0.0125 * 2750) / 2325.36 ≈ 0.01478 BTC. RiskPct is set to 1.25% per house rule.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.0005102riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Position size calculated to meet the 1.25% risk rule. Funding is negative and a CPI print looms, creating uncertainty, so standing flat on new action but sizing the existing short.
⊢ size=0.0005102 (exp 0.0148, err 96.5%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01478entry 66439invalidation 68764.36riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Sizing the short position so that the stop distance of 2325.36 points risks exactly 1.25% of the $2750 account, yielding a size of ~0.01478 BTC.
⊢ size=0.01478 (exp 0.0148, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01478sizePct 0.357entry 66439invalidation 68764.36takeProfit 61788.28leverage 1riskPct 1.25compliant falsemaxNotional 982.18rr 2confidence 0.5
Position size of 0.01478 BTC is derived from the 1.25% max risk limit ($34.375) divided by the stop distance ($2325.36), resulting in an actual account risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.01478 (exp 0.0148, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25