← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

BTC consolidates near a key support shelf as funding rates flip neutral. Given: long BTC — entry 66788, stop 64450.42, target 72631.95. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.499999999999997, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66788invalidation 64450.42takeProfit 72631.95rr 2.5confidence 0.6
Risk is 2337.58 and reward is 5843.95, giving R:R of ~2.5 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies at support with neutral funding.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66788invalidation 64450.42takeProfit 72631.95rr 2.5confidence 0.62
Risk is 2337.58 and reward is 5843.95, giving R:R ~2.5 which clears the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.5confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.5confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66788invalidation 64450.42takeProfit 72631.95rr 2.5confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.5, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2, allowing the trade to be taken.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66788invalidation 64450.42takeProfit 72631.95rr 2.5confidence 0.8
The reward to risk ratio is 2.5, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making this a valid setup.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action flatentry 66788invalidation 64450.42takeProfit 72631.95rr 1.99confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 1.99, just below the required 2.0 minimum, so the trade must be skipped.
⊢ rr=1.99 (exp 2.50), took=false canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longentry 66788invalidation 64450.42takeProfit 72631.95rr 2.21confidence 0.55
Reward:risk = (72631.95-66788)/(66788-64450.42) = 5843.95/2337.58 ≈ 2.50, which meets the >=2 threshold. However, consolidation near support with neutral funding suggests no clear edge, so conviction is modest and I would size small or skip; per the question's binary, I take it.
⊢ rr=2.21 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.5confidence 0.9
Reward is 5843.95 versus risk of 2337.58, giving an R:R of 2.5. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade can be taken.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.5confidence 0.74
Reward is 5843.95 versus risk of 2337.58, giving an R:R of 2.5, which meets the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66788invalidation 64450.42takeProfit 72631.95rr 2.5confidence 0.6
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.5 (5843.95 / 2337.58), which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold. Consolidation at key support with neutral funding provides a reasonable long setup.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66788invalidation 64450.42takeProfit 72631.95rr 2.5confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 5843.95/2337.58 = 2.5, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold. However, consolidation near support with neutral funding provides limited edge, so confidence is moderate.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.5confidence 0.9
RR=2.5 meets >=2 threshold so trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.5confidence 0.9
RR exactly 2.5 meets threshold but funding neutral + consolidation = no edge per gate 1, so skip.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatentry 66788invalidation 64450.42takeProfit 72631.95rr 2.52confidence 0.6
Risk:reward is 2.52 which meets the 2.0 threshold, but the context describes neutral funding and consolidation at support — a low-edge environment where standing flat is often correct. Skipping due to lack of directional conviction.
⊢ rr=2.52 (exp 2.50), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.5confidence 0.6
The trade's reward-to-risk ratio of 2.5 meets the minimum threshold of 2.0, but the consolidating market with neutral funding suggests a moderate-confidence setup.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.5confidence 0.6
R:R is approximately 2.5 (risk 2337.58, reward 5843.95), exceeding the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66788invalidation 64450.42takeProfit 72631.95rr 2.5confidence 0.45
R:R of ~2.5 clears the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is technically valid; however, consolidation with neutral funding and no clear smart-money signal keeps conviction low.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true