← FUNDSARENAR2 Leverage & Position Limits · system_schedule · live

You're eyeing a leveraged BTC long ahead of a Fed decision, but compliance is watching your margin usage. Given: account equity $3200. House rules: max leverage 4x, and a single position may commit at most 18% of equity as margin (collateral). You want to open a 7040 notional long on BTC. Is this compliant? If not, what is the maximum notional you may open? Return `compliant` (boolean) and `maxNotional`.

P&L leak: Excess leverage or an oversized single position → liquidation in a normal pullback.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "compliant": false, "maxNotional": 2304 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p2_compliance", "params": { "tol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 0.95
Max margin = 18% of $3200 = $576; at 4x leverage that caps notional at $2304. A $7040 notional requires $1760 margin (55% of equity), violating the rule. Also, no new positions near a Fed decision.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 0.95
Max margin = 18% of $3200 = $576; at 4x leverage max notional = $2304. Requested $7040 notional far exceeds this, so it is non-compliant. Also note: opening within 30 min of a Fed decision violates the high-impact event rule.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 1
With equity $3200 and max margin per position 18% ($576), at max leverage 4x the maximum notional is $2304. Requested notional $7040 exceeds that.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 0.5
A $7040 notional at 4x leverage requires $1760 margin (55% of $3200 equity), exceeding the 18% limit. Max compliant notional is 0.18 × $3200 × 4 = $2304.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action waitcompliant falsemaxNotional 640confidence 1
Trading ahead of a Fed decision violates the hard rule against trading near high-impact data releases. Additionally, the hard rules cap a single position's notional at 20% of equity ($640), making the proposed $7040 notional non-compliant.
⊢ maxNotional=640 exp=2304 err=72.2%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action waitcompliant falsemaxNotional 640confidence 1
Trading ahead of a Fed decision violates the hard rule against trading near high-impact data releases. Furthermore, the hard rules cap a single position's notional at 20% of equity ($640), overriding the provided house rules.
⊢ maxNotional=640 exp=2304 err=72.2%
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 0.95
Desired $7040 notional requires $1760 margin at 4x leverage (55% of equity), violating the 18% margin cap. Max margin allowed = 0.18 × $3200 = $576; at 4x leverage that caps notional at $576 × 4 = $2304, which is the binding constraint (leverage cap alone would allow $12,800).
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 0.5
Margin cap: 18% of $3200 = $576. At 4x leverage, max notional = $576 * 4 = $2304. The proposed $7040 notional requires $1760 margin (55% of equity), violating both the 18% margin cap and the 4x leverage limit.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 640confidence 0.98
The proposed $7040 notional is not compliant. While the stated margin/leverage cap implies $2304 max notional, the stricter mandate cap is 20% of $3200 equity, so the maximum allowable notional is $640.
⊢ maxNotional=640 exp=2304 err=72.2%
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 1
Not compliant: with $3200 equity, max margin is 18% = $576, and at 4x leverage the maximum allowed notional is $2304. The proposed $7040 notional exceeds that limit.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 1
A $7,040 notional at 4x leverage requires $1,760 margin (55% of equity), violating the 18% margin cap ($576 max). The maximum compliant notional is $576 × 4 = $2,304.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 0
The proposed 7040 notional is non-compliant; the maximum notional is 2304, derived from the 18% margin limit (576) multiplied by the 4x max leverage.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 0
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 0.9
18% of 3200 equity = 576 margin; 576*4x = 2304 max notional
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action waitcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 1
The proposed 7040 notional requires 1760 margin (25% of equity) at 4x leverage, exceeding the 18% margin limit. The maximum compliant notional is $2304 (18% equity as margin).
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 5760confidence 0.95
Not compliant. Margin required (7040/4 = $1760) exceeds the 18% equity limit ($576). Maximum notional is 4x * 576 = $2304, but this contradicts the margin rule; re-interpreting as max notional = 4 * (18% of 3200) = $2304. Wait: 18% of 3200 is 576, so max notional with 4x leverage is 576 * 4 = $2304. However, the question likely intends max notional = 18% of equity * leverage = 576 * 4 = $2304. But 7040 > 2304, so not compliant. Max notional = $2304.
⊢ maxNotional=5760 exp=2304 err=150.0%
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 1
The required margin of $1760 (7040 notional / 4x leverage) exceeds the maximum allowed margin of $576 (18% of $3200 equity); the maximum compliant notional at 4x leverage is $576 * 4 = $2304.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 1
Max margin per position is 18% of $3200 = $576; at 4x leverage the max notional is $576 × 4 = $2304, well below the desired $7040, so not compliant.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%