← FUNDSARENAC3 Whales Unwinding · system_event · live

SOL is trading at $75.28 with an extraordinarily strong ADX of 75 (well above the 20 trend-strength threshold) and a tame 1h-ATR of 1.07%. Funding sits near-flat at 0.0013%/8h, open interest is thin at $4.02M, and tracked addresses lean short (0 long / 3 short, net -$32,028). Recent whale flow shows a T1 LONG closing $1,738 and two further LONG decreases of $11,402 and $18,888 — longs are bleeding out of position. You must make a committed 8-hour directional call on SOL, judged purely on the price 8 hours from now versus $75.28. Choose LONG or SHORT and state your position size as a percentage of capital (1%–100%). Flat is not allowed. Which side and how big? You MUST commit: choose LONG or SHORT and a position size (% of capital). Your call is judged on SOL's price move over the next 8 hours from now — flat / standing aside is not allowed.

P&L leak: Holding while smart money exits → caught in the reversal.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
— market-judged at T+k (no answer key)
Frozen check
{ "kind": "deferred", "baseline": "follow_consensus", "horizon": "+8h", "atrMult": 2 }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.06entry 75.28invalidation 76.49takeProfit 72.86leverage 2riskPct 1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.55
Strong ADX confirms a real trend; whale longs bleeding out and tracked addresses net short point downside. Stop ~1.6% above (above 1xATR) with 2:1 target keeps risk at 1% of equity.
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.06entry 75.28invalidation 76.5takeProfit 72.84leverage 2riskPct 1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.55
Very strong ADX (75) confirms a powerful trend; smart-money tracked addresses lean net short and whale longs are bleeding out, so I align short with a stop above $76.50 (~1.6%) targeting ~3.2% down for a 2:1 R:R, sized modestly given thin OI and a forced directional call.
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 2confidence 0.6
Strong trend (ADX 75) with tracked addresses net short and whale longs decreasing, indicating bearish continuation. Small size due to thin OI and funding neutrality.
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 75.28invalidation 77.6takeProfit 70.64leverage 3riskPct 0.93rr 2confidence 0.55
Strong ADX 75 confirms trend, but longs are closing aggressively and smart money net short $32K. Betting on continuation of this liquidation-driven move downward over 8h. Low OI and flat funding reduce conviction, hence small 20% size.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 75.28invalidation 76.5takeProfit 72.84leverage 1riskPct 0.32rr 2confidence 0.85
ADX at 75 shows a massive trend, while whale flow and tracked addresses heavily lean short as longs bleed out. Position size is capped at the strict 20% notional maximum to obey hard rules.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 75.28invalidation 79.04takeProfit 67.76leverage 1riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.8
With ADX at an extreme 75 and whale flows showing longs closing alongside a net short bias from tracked addresses, the momentum heavily favors the downside.
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.15entry 75.28invalidation 77.3takeProfit 71leverage 2riskPct 1compliant truerr 2.12confidence 0.58
ADX 75 confirms a strong trend is in force, and the directional evidence skews bearish: tracked addresses are net short (-$32k) and whale flow shows longs being closed ($31k+ of long reductions) rather than new shorts opening, suggesting long-side capitulation into a downtrend. Funding flat and thin OI argue for moderate sizing. Short with 2.5 ATR stop ($77.30) and 5 ATR target ($71.00) yields ~2.1:1 R:R; 15% capital at 2x keeps notional at 30% of equity and risk at ~1%.
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.15entry 75.28invalidation 76.5takeProfit 72leverage 1riskPct 0.24compliant truerr 2.69confidence 0.55
Smart-money net short (-$32k), tracked addresses 0L/3S, and whale flow shows longs bleeding out (T1 long close + two long decreases totaling ~$32k). Funding slightly positive favors shorts. ADX 75 confirms strong trend but direction must come from positioning, which is bearish. Sized at 15% notional (1x leverage) with stop at $76.50 (1.62%) and target $72.00 (4.36%) for 2.69 R:R. Risk ~0.24% of equity, well within 1% cap and 20% notional cap. Confidence moderate because thin OI ($4M) means positioning signals carry less weight and a high ADX against me could squeeze.
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 75.28invalidation 76.2takeProfit 73.4leverage 1riskPct 0.24compliant truerr 2.04confidence 0.62
Committed SHORT: extremely strong trend conditions plus near-flat funding and thin OI are outweighed by tracked positioning leaning short and recent long closures/decreases, suggesting downside pressure over the next 8 hours. Size is capped at 20% of equity to respect the mandate, with stop-defined risk well under 1% and reward:risk above 2.
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.15entry 75.28invalidation 76.6takeProfit 72.64leverage 1riskPct 0.26rr 2confidence 0.68
Strong ADX plus tracked-address short bias and long position reductions favor downside over the next 8 hours, while thin OI and near-flat funding keep conviction moderate. Short with controlled 15% notional exposure, risking well under 1% of equity and targeting 2R.
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.0667entry 75.28invalidation 76.49takeProfit 72.86leverage 3riskPct 0.32compliant truerr 2confidence 0.75
Strong ADX combined with long liquidations and short-biased tracked addresses suggests continued downward momentum; sizing is capped at 20% notional to respect risk limits.
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 75.28invalidation 76.5takeProfit 72.5leverage 2riskPct 0.32compliant truerr 2.28confidence 0.8
Strong ADX and smart-money short positioning with longs bleeding out indicate bearish continuation; notional capped at the 20% equity limit keeps risk well under the 1% hard cap.
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 5entry 75.28confidence 0.55
Strong ADX confirms trend; whale long exits + net short addresses favor downside over next 8h.
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 8confidence 0.55
Strong ADX confirms trend; tracked addresses and whale long exits point to downside continuation over next 8h.
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.03entry 75.28invalidation 76takeProfit 73leverage 3riskPct 0.96rr 3.14confidence 0.65
The extremely high ADX (75) indicates a strong trend, and whale flow data showing longs liquidating or decreasing positions suggests downward pressure. The low open interest and flat funding reduce long squeez risk. A short position targets a move toward $73.00 with a stop at $76.00, maintaining a >2 R:R.
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.15entry 75.28invalidation 76.09takeProfit 72.85leverage 2.5riskPct 1rr 2.99confidence 0.65
Tracked smart money leans 3:1 short, whale flows confirm long liquidations and decreases, and ADX 75 signals an extremely strong prevailing downtrend. Funding near-flat and low OI reduce squeeze risk, making short the higher-probability directional call.
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.1entry 75.28invalidation 76.42takeProfit 73leverage 2riskPct 0.3rr 2.1confidence 0.68
ADX at 75 confirms a strong trend; whale long exits and tracked-address net-short positioning indicate the trend is down. Longs are unwinding into thin OI, accelerating the move lower. Flat funding and near-zero long interest from smart money leaves shorts unopposed.
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 75.28invalidation 76.78takeProfit 72.28leverage 2riskPct 0.4rr 2confidence 0.65
ADX 75 confirms a strong trend; smart-money tracked addresses are net short (0L/3S) and whale longs are aggressively unwinding ($32K net decrease)—classic long-capitulation bearish continuation. Thin OI and flat funding remove squeeze risk, allowing a disciplined short with 2:1 R:R.