← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

ETH coils under the 1775 supply shelf as funding flips slightly negative into the New York open. Given: long ETH — entry 1775, stop 1712.88, target 1942.72. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.699935608499683, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1775invalidation 1712.88takeProfit 1942.72rr 2.7confidence 0.62
Risk is 62.12 points, reward is 167.72 points, giving R:R ~2.7 which clears the 2.0 minimum; breakout above 1775 supply with negative funding into NY open supports the long.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1775invalidation 1712.88takeProfit 1942.72rr 2.7confidence 0.6
Risk is 62.12 (1775-1712.88), reward is 167.72 (1942.72-1775), giving R:R of 2.7 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum; coil under supply with negative funding into NY open supports the long.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1775invalidation 1712.88takeProfit 1942.72rr 2.7confidence 0.8
Reward (1942.72 - 1775 = 167.72) / Risk (1775 - 1712.88 = 62.12) = 2.70, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 requirement. Negative funding adds a small tailwind.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1775invalidation 1712.88takeProfit 1942.72rr 2.7confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is 2.70, exceeding the 2 minimum. Negative funding into NY open suggests a potential long edge.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1775invalidation 1712.88takeProfit 1942.72rr 2.7confidence 1
The calculated reward-to-risk ratio is 2.7, which satisfies the strict mandate of requiring an R:R of at least 2.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1775invalidation 1712.88takeProfit 1942.72rr 2.7confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.7, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, allowing the trade to be taken.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.5
Risk = 1775 - 1712.88 = 62.12; Reward = 1942.72 - 1775 = 167.72; R:R = 167.72/62.12 ≈ 2.70, which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade passes the reward:risk filter.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longentry 1775invalidation 1712.88takeProfit 1942.72rr 2confidence 0.55
Reward:risk = (1942.72-1775)/(1775-1712.88) = 167.72/62.12 ≈ 2.70, which meets the >=2 threshold. However, negative funding into NY open with price coiled under supply is a mixed signal (shorts paying, but supply overhead). Edge is moderate, so I would take it but at reduced size; for the R:R question, the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.6999confidence 0.95
Reward is 167.72 and risk is 62.12, giving an R:R of about 2.70, which exceeds the minimum requirement of 2.
⊢ rr=2.6999 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.62
Reward is 167.72 and risk is 62.12, giving an R:R of about 2.7, which clears the minimum 2.0 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1775invalidation 1712.88takeProfit 1942.72rr 2.7confidence 0.65
Reward:risk is 167.72/62.12 = 2.70, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade qualifies on R:R alone.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 1775invalidation 1712.88takeProfit 1942.72leverage 2riskPct 0.7rr 2.7confidence 0.55
R:R of 2.70 meets the minimum 2.0 threshold; negative funding into NY open provides a mild contrarian bullish lean as ETH coils under the 1775 supply shelf, warranting a capped 0.7% risk position.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.85
Risk 62.12, reward 167.72 yields RR 2.7 which satisfies >=2 rule.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1775invalidation 1712.88takeProfit 1942.72rr 2.64confidence 0.65
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.64, exceeding the 2.0 minimum. Funding flip to negative and coil under resistance suggests potential for a breakout.
⊢ rr=2.64 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1775invalidation 1712.88takeProfit 1942.72rr 2.67confidence 0.5
Reward-to-risk ratio is ~2.67, which meets the ≥2 threshold. The setup—coiling under resistance with slightly negative funding—is acceptable for a long.
⊢ rr=2.67 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1775invalidation 1712.88takeProfit 1942.72rr 2.7confidence 0.6
Reward-to-risk ratio is approximately 2.7, which exceeds the minimum threshold of 2, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1775invalidation 1712.88takeProfit 1942.72rr 2.7confidence 0.6
R:R is 2.70 (risk 62.12, reward 167.72), clearing the 2.0 minimum; coiling under supply with negative funding into NY open offers a contrarian long edge.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true