← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

HYPE shrugs off broader crypto chop as governance buzz builds. Given: long HYPE — entry 67.71, stop 64.66, target 76.1. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.75081967213115, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 64.66takeProfit 76.1rr 2.75confidence 0.65
Risk is 3.05 (67.71-64.66) and reward is 8.39 (76.1-67.71), giving R:R of ~2.75, which exceeds the 2.0 minimum so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 64.66takeProfit 76.1rr 2.75confidence 0.6
Risk is 3.05 (67.71-64.66), reward is 8.39 (76.1-67.71), giving R:R of 2.75 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 64.66takeProfit 76.1rr 2.75confidence 0.8
Risk: 3.05, reward: 8.39, R:R = 2.75 > 2, meeting the reward:risk rule.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75081967confidence 0.8
R:R of 2.75 exceeds the required 2, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.75081967 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 64.66takeProfit 76.1rr 2.75confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.75, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 64.66takeProfit 76.1rr 2.75confidence 0.8
The reward to risk ratio is 2.75, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 64.66takeProfit 76.1compliant truerr 2.75confidence 0.78
Reward = 76.10 - 67.71 = 8.39; risk = 67.71 - 64.66 = 3.05; R:R = 8.39/3.05 ≈ 2.75, which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 64.66takeProfit 76.1rr 2.75confidence 0.7
Reward 8.39 / Risk 3.05 = 2.75 R:R, which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade is acceptable on a reward:risk basis.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.750819672131148confidence 0.9
Reward is 8.39 versus risk of 3.05, giving an R:R above the 2.0 minimum, so the setup qualifies on reward:risk.
⊢ rr=2.750819672131148 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.7
Reward is 8.39 versus risk of 3.05, giving an R:R of about 2.75, which clears the minimum 2.0 threshold.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 64.66takeProfit 76.1rr 2.75confidence 0.65
Reward:risk is 8.39/3.05 ≈ 2.75, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade qualifies on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 67.71invalidation 64.66takeProfit 76.1leverage 1riskPct 0.9rr 2.75confidence 0.65
R:R of 2.75 exceeds the 2.0 minimum; HYPE shows relative strength with a governance catalyst, justifying a capped 20% notional position at 1x leverage to keep risk under 1%.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.9
RR=8.39/3.05=2.75 meets >=2 threshold so trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatentry 67.71invalidation 64.66takeProfit 76.1rr 2.69confidence 0.85
Reward:risk is 2.69, which meets the minimum threshold of 2, but the trade setup suggests caution given the specific asset's volatility profile and the broader market chop mentioned; therefore, standing flat is prudent despite the compliant R:R.
⊢ rr=2.69 (exp 2.75), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.78confidence 0.2
While the R:R of 2.78 meets the minimum requirement, the narrative-driven 'governance buzz' is a low-conviction signal that doesn't provide a clear technical or smart-money edge. Standing flat is the disciplined choice to avoid churn on an unclear setup.
⊢ rr=2.78 (exp 2.75), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.71invalidation 64.66takeProfit 76.1rr 2.75confidence 0.8
Reward-to-risk ratio is approximately 2.75, which exceeds the minimum requirement of 2, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.8
Reward is 8.39 versus risk of 3.05, yielding an R:R of 2.75 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true