← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

HYPE catches a bid as traders rotate into Hyperliquid's perps narrative after a strong volume week. Given: long HYPE — entry 75.92, stop 72.5, target 85.33. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.7514619883040914, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.92invalidation 72.5takeProfit 85.33rr 2.75confidence 0.7
Risk is 3.42 (75.92-72.5), reward is 9.41 (85.33-75.92), giving R:R ~2.75 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.92invalidation 72.5takeProfit 85.33rr 2.75confidence 0.62
Risk = 3.42, reward = 9.41, R:R = 2.75 which clears the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is takeable on the long side.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 1
The trade has a reward:risk of 2.75, exceeding the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 2.75, exceeding the minimum 2, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.92invalidation 72.5takeProfit 85.33rr 2.75146confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.75, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.75146 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.92invalidation 72.5takeProfit 85.33rr 2.75confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.75, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.92invalidation 72.5takeProfit 85.33rr 2.75confidence 0.7
Reward (9.41) / Risk (3.42) = 2.75, which exceeds the 2.0 minimum R:R threshold, so the trade is acceptable on a reward-to-risk basis.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is 9.41/3.42 ≈ 2.75, which exceeds the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade qualifies. Risk per unit is $3.42 against $9.41 of upside, meeting mandate criteria.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.9
Reward is 9.41 and risk is 3.42, giving an R:R of about 2.75, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.74
Reward is 9.41 versus risk of 3.42, giving an R:R of about 2.75, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.009entry 75.92invalidation 72.5takeProfit 85.33leverage 1riskPct 0.9rr 2.75confidence 0.7
R:R of 2.75 exceeds the 2.0 minimum; strong volume-driven rotation into HYPE perps supports the long thesis. Notional capped at 20% of equity to stay within position limits, bringing realized risk to ~0.9%.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.92invalidation 72.5takeProfit 85.33rr 2.75confidence 0.7
Reward:risk of 2.75 exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold; strong volume-driven narrative rotation into HYPE perps provides a clear edge.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.9
RR of 9.41/3.42 equals 2.75 which meets the >=2 threshold so the long is valid.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.92invalidation 72.5takeProfit 85.33rr 2.73confidence 0.7
Reward:risk ratio of 2.73 meets the >=2 requirement. Entry at 75.92 with stop at 72.5 (risk 3.42) and target 85.33 (reward 9.41) gives a viable trade under the mandate.
⊢ rr=2.73 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatentry 75.92invalidation 72.5takeProfit 85.33rr 2.74confidence 0
Reward:risk ratio is 2.74 (target move 9.41 vs stop distance 3.42), which meets the >=2 threshold. However, the trade is skipped because no live market data, funding, or smart-money positioning is provided to verify an actual edge beyond the narrative headline.
⊢ rr=2.74 (exp 2.75), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.92invalidation 72.5takeProfit 85.33rr 2.75confidence 0.7
R:R of 2.75 exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold; risk is 3.42 points for a potential reward of 9.41 points, justifying a long entry.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.92invalidation 72.5takeProfit 85.33rr 2.75confidence 0.65
R:R of 2.75 exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold; strong volume week and perps rotation narrative provide directional edge for a long.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true