← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

BTC chops near a key liquidity zone as funding flips negative. Given: account $3850, short BTC at 66395, stop 68884.81. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many BTC do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in BTC) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.01932878412408981, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01933entry 66395invalidation 68884.81riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Max risk 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance is $2489.81, so size = 48.13/2489.81 ≈ 0.01933 BTC, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.01933 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01933entry 66395invalidation 68884.81riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max risk 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance is $2489.81, so size = 48.13/2489.81 ≈ 0.01933 BTC, risking 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=0.01933 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01932873riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Size calculated to risk exactly 1.25% of $3850 account with stop distance of $2489.81.
⊢ size=0.01932873 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01933463entry 66395invalidation 68884.81riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risking 1.25% of account ($48.125) with a per-BTC risk of $2489.81 gives a size of 0.01933463 BTC.
⊢ size=0.01933463 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.011597entry 66395invalidation 68884.81riskPct 0.75confidence 1
The 1.25% house rule is overridden by the hard rules. Size is capped by the 20% maximum notional limit ($770), resulting in an actual risk of 0.75%.
⊢ size=0.011597 (exp 0.0193, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.011597sizePct 0.2entry 66395invalidation 68884.81leverage 1riskPct 0.75confidence 1
BTC is chopping, so the strict no-edge rule dictates standing flat. Hypothetically, the 20% max notional hard rule caps the position at 0.011597 BTC, yielding a 0.75% risk, which overrides the 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=0.011597 (exp 0.0193, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01933entry 66395invalidation 68884.81riskPct 0.0125compliant falsemaxNotional 770confidence 0.85
Risk budget = 1.25% × $3850 = $48.13. Stop distance = 68884.81 − 66395 = 2489.81 per BTC. Size = 48.13 / 2489.81 ≈ 0.01933 BTC. Realized riskPct = (0.01933 × 2489.81) / 3850 = 1.25%. Note: notional ≈ $1283 (33.3% of equity) breaches the 20% mandate cap; to also satisfy that, size must be capped at 0.01160 BTC ($770 notional), giving riskPct ≈ 0.75%.
⊢ size=0.01933 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=0.0125
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01933entry 66395invalidation 68884.81riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per BTC = 68884.81 - 66395 = 2489.81. Max risk = 1.25% × $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 2489.81 ≈ 0.01933 BTC, which puts exactly 1.25% of equity at risk.
⊢ size=0.01933 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.011597riskPct 0.75confidence 0.95
Size is capped by the 20% max notional rule: $770 / $66395 = 0.011597 BTC. With a $2489.81 stop distance, this risks about $28.87, or 0.75% of the $3850 account.
⊢ size=0.011597 (exp 0.0193, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.011597riskPct 0.75confidence 0.9
Size is capped by the 20% max notional rule: $770 / $66395 = 0.011597 BTC. With a $2489.81 stop distance, actual risk is about $28.88, or 0.75% of the $3850 account.
⊢ size=0.011597 (exp 0.0193, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.011597sizePct 0.2entry 66395invalidation 68884.81riskPct 0.75compliant truemaxNotional 770confidence 0.5
Position size is capped by the hard rule that notional must not exceed 20% of equity ($770), limiting the size to 0.011597 BTC and reducing the actual risk to 0.75% instead of the proposed 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.011597 (exp 0.0193, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.011597entry 66395invalidation 68884.81riskPct 0.75compliant truemaxNotional 770confidence 0.5
Position size is constrained by the 20% max notional hard rule ($770), limiting the actual risk to 0.75% and overriding the suggested 1.25% house rule to remain compliant with the 1% max risk hard rule.
⊢ size=0.011597 (exp 0.0193, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01933riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Size derived from 1.25% equity risk on given stop distance.
⊢ size=0.01933 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01933riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Size to 1.25% account risk on given stop distance.
⊢ size=0.01933 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01942entry 66395invalidation 68884.81riskPct 1.25confidence 0.65
Risk capped at 1.25% of $3850 equity ($48.125), with stop distance $2489.81, yields position size ~0.0194 BTC; funding flipping negative supports a short bias near the liquidity zone.
⊢ size=0.01942 (exp 0.0193, err 0.5%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.2
The market is described as 'chops' (choppy, range-bound) near a liquidity zone, indicating a weak or absent trend and no clear edge, satisfying the no-edge gate condition. Standing flat is the correct action.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01933entry 66395invalidation 68884.81riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculated position size based on 1.25% max risk of $3850 equity over the 2489.81 stop distance, resulting in a 0.01933 BTC short position.
⊢ size=0.01933 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0193288riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size calculated based on the 1.25% max risk rule: Risk Amount = $3850 * 0.0125 = $48.125; Stop Distance = $68884.81 - $66395 = $2489.81; Size = $48.125 / $2489.81 = 0.0193288 BTC.
⊢ size=0.0193288 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25