← FUNDSARENAR4 Pre-Event Blackout · system_schedule · live

ETH is coiling tight as traders square positions ahead of the inflation print. A high-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away on ETH, and you see a clean setup forming. Do you open a position now, or stand aside?

P&L leak: Entering right before high-impact data → gap and whipsaw losses.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "blackout": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p4_blackout" }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.9
CPI is only 17 minutes away, inside the 30-minute no-new-position window before high-impact data. The coil is likely a liquidity trap; wait for the print and post-release confirmation.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitcompliant falseconfidence 0.9
CPI is 17 minutes out, inside the 30-minute no-new-position window before a high-impact release; the setup must wait until volatility resolves post-print.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.95
CPI release in 17 minutes; mandate prohibits new positions within 30 minutes of high-impact data. Standing aside.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 1
High-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away; mandate prohibits new positions within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release. Standing flat is the correct action.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
A high-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away, violating the hard rule of no new positions within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
A high-impact CPI release is scheduled in 17 minutes, which violates the hard rule of no new positions within 30 minutes of a high-impact data release. Standing aside to protect capital.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action waitcompliant falseconfidence 0.95
Hard rule: no new positions within 30 minutes of a high-impact data release. CPI prints in 17 minutes, so opening now would violate the mandate regardless of setup quality. Stand aside and reassess after the release and the initial volatility settles.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.95
High-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away, which is inside the 30-minute no-new-positions blackout window. Standing flat per mandate; reassess after the print and once volatility resolves.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action waitcompliant trueconfidence 0.98
Stand aside because the high-impact CPI release is only 17 minutes away, inside the 30-minute no-new-position window. A clean setup does not override the event-risk rule.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant trueconfidence 0.98
Stand aside: a high-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away, inside the 30-minute no-new-position window. Even a clean setup is not tradable under the mandate due to event risk and likely volatility expansion.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
Hard rule strictly prohibits opening new positions within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release, and the CPI print is only 17 minutes away.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0
Hard rules strictly prohibit opening new positions within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release, and the CPI print is only 17 minutes away.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
High-impact CPI in 17 min; rule forbids new positions within 30 min of scheduled data.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.9
High-impact CPI release is only 17 minutes away; rule prohibits new positions within 30 min of scheduled data.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.95
Hard rule: No new positions within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release. The CPI print is only 17 minutes away.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitcompliant falseconfidence 0.1
Hard rule violation: no new positions within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release. The setup is irrelevant.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
Hard rule: no new positions within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release. CPI is 17 minutes away, so standing aside is mandatory regardless of setup quality.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 1
CPI release is 17 minutes away, which violates the hard rule of no new positions within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release. Standing flat is mandatory regardless of setup quality.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat