← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

BTC reclaims 67k after a sharp wick as funding flips neutral. Given: long BTC — entry 67170, stop 64819.05, target 73517.56. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.699997873200198, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67170invalidation 64819.05takeProfit 73517.56rr 2.7confidence 0.6
Risk 2350.95, reward 6347.56, R:R ~2.7 exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67170invalidation 64819.05takeProfit 73517.56rr 2.7confidence 0.6
Risk = 2350.95, reward = 6347.56, R:R ≈ 2.7 which clears the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 1
The reward:risk is approximately 2.70, which meets the minimum requirement of 2, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.5
RR = 6347.56/2350.95 ≈ 2.70, which is >2, so trade meets criteria.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67170invalidation 64819.05takeProfit 73517.56rr 2.7confidence 0.9
The calculated reward to risk ratio is 2.7, which satisfies the strict mandate requirement of being greater than or equal to 2.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67170invalidation 64819.05takeProfit 73517.56rr 2.7confidence 0.8
The reward to risk ratio is 2.7, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making this a valid trade setup.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action longentry 67170invalidation 64819.05takeProfit 73517.56rr 2.5confidence 0.7
Reward:risk = (73517.56 - 67170) / (67170 - 64819.05) = 6347.56 / 2350.95 ≈ 2.70, which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable on R:R grounds. Funding neutral and reclaim of 67k after a wick supports a long bias, though sizing and leverage still need to respect the 1% risk and 3x leverage caps.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67170invalidation 64819.05takeProfit 73517.56rr 2.7confidence 0.7
Reward:risk = (73517.56 - 67170) / (67170 - 64819.05) = 6347.56 / 2350.95 ≈ 2.70, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade is taken.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.99
Reward is 6347.56 and risk is 2350.95, giving an R:R of about 2.7. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade can be taken.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.8
Reward is 6347.56 and risk is 2350.95, giving an R:R of 2.7, which meets the minimum requirement of 2.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67170invalidation 64819.05takeProfit 73517.56rr 2.7confidence 0.65
Reward-to-risk ratio is approximately 2.70 (6347.56 / 2350.95), which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold. The reclaim of 67k with neutral funding supports a long bias.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67170invalidation 64819.05takeProfit 73517.56rr 2.7confidence 0.6
R:R of 2.70 exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold; sharp wick reclaim of 67k shows buyer conviction, though neutral funding tempers conviction to moderate.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.7confidence 0.8
Funding neutral signals no edge per no-edge gate; RR meets 2 but rule requires flat.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67170invalidation 64819.05takeProfit 73517.56rr 2.67confidence 0.65
Reward:risk is approximately 2.67, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold. The reclaimed level and neutral funding suggest reduced downside pressure, supporting a long entry.
⊢ rr=2.67 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67170invalidation 64819.05takeProfit 73517.56rr 2.71confidence 0.65
The reward-to-risk ratio is (73517.56 - 67170) / (67170 - 64819.05) = 6347.56 / 2350.95 ≈ 2.71, which exceeds the 2:1 minimum threshold, making the trade compliant with the R:R rule.
⊢ rr=2.71 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.5
The reward:risk ratio is 2.70, which exceeds the minimum requirement of 2, so the trade is valid to take.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.7confidence 0.8
The reward:risk ratio is approximately 2.7, which exceeds the minimum requirement of 2, making the trade valid to take.
⊢ rr=2.7 (exp 2.70), took=true canTrade=true