← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

HYPE momentum traders are piling in as the token tests a key breakout level. Given: long HYPE — entry 67.93, stop 65.55, target 73.29. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.252100840336125, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.93invalidation 65.55takeProfit 73.29rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk is 2.38 (67.93-65.55), reward is 5.36 (73.29-67.93), giving R:R of 2.25 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.93invalidation 65.55takeProfit 73.29rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk is 2.38 (67.93-65.55), reward is 5.36 (73.29-67.93), giving R:R of 2.25 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies on a confirmed breakout.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
Reward:risk of 2.25 exceeds the minimum 2, trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.8
Reward:risk is 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.93invalidation 65.55takeProfit 73.29rr 2.2521confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, allowing the long trade.
⊢ rr=2.2521 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.93invalidation 65.55takeProfit 73.29rr 2.25confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.93invalidation 65.55takeProfit 73.29rr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward 5.36 over risk 2.38 gives R:R ~2.25, which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is approved.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.93invalidation 65.55takeProfit 73.29rr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward 5.36 / Risk 2.38 = 2.25 R:R, which meets the >=2 minimum threshold, so the trade is eligible.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.95
Reward is 5.36 versus risk of 2.38, giving an R:R of about 2.25. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade is eligible.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.75
Reward/risk is (73.29 - 67.93) / (67.93 - 65.55) = 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.93invalidation 65.55takeProfit 73.29rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 5.36/2.38 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is acceptable on R:R alone.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.93invalidation 65.55takeProfit 73.29rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 5.36/2.38 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is acceptable on R:R alone.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.93invalidation 65.55takeProfit 73.29rr 2.27confidence 0.75
Reward:risk is approximately 2.27:1, exceeding the minimum 2:1 threshold, making the trade acceptable under the mandate.
⊢ rr=2.27 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.24confidence 0
The calculated R:R is 2.24 (5.36 reward / 2.38 risk), which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold. However, the decision is flat because the setup description lacks critical data for a genuine edge (e.g., ADX for trend strength, volatility metrics, funding, smart-money positioning). Without confirming a clear trend and sufficient volatility, the no-edge gate triggers, and standing flat is the disciplined move.
⊢ rr=2.24 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.25, exceeding the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.6
Reward is 5.36 versus a risk of 2.38, yielding an R:R of 2.25 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, making the trade permissible.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true