← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

HYPE is consolidating after a sharp rally as funding turns negative. Given: account $3275, short HYPE at 67.89, stop 70.95. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many HYPE do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in HYPE) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 13.378267973856198, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.38entry 67.89invalidation 70.95riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 3.06, so size = 40.94/3.06 ≈ 13.38 HYPE, putting ~1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=13.38 (exp 13.3783, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.37entry 67.89invalidation 70.95riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = $3.06, so size = 40.94/3.06 ≈ 13.37 HYPE, putting exactly 1.25% of the account at risk.
⊢ size=13.37 (exp 13.3783, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.7riskPct 1confidence 0
Risk per HYPE is 70.95 - 67.89 = 3.06. Max risk 1% of $3275 is $32.75, so size = 32.75/3.06 ≈ 10.7 HYPE. However, your rule states 1% max risk, not 1.25% as in the prompt. Used 1% for safety.
⊢ size=10.7 (exp 13.3783, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.97entry 67.89invalidation 70.95riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Risk per share is 3.06 (70.95 - 67.89). Max risk 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 3.06 ≈ 13.97 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=13.97 (exp 13.3783, err 4.4%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.648sizePct 0.2entry 67.89invalidation 70.95takeProfit 61.77leverage 1riskPct 0.901rr 2confidence 1
Although the house rule allows 1.25% risk, the hard mandate caps risk at 1% and max notional at 20% of equity ($655). The 20% notional limit is the bottleneck here, restricting the size to 9.648 HYPE and realizing a 0.901% risk.
⊢ size=9.648 (exp 13.3783, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.901
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.64sizePct 0.2entry 67.89invalidation 70.95leverage 1riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Although the user suggested a 1.25% risk, hard rules cap risk at 1% and notional size at 20% of equity ($655). The 20% notional limit is the stricter constraint here, capping the size at 9.64 HYPE and resulting in an actual risk of 0.90%.
⊢ size=9.64 (exp 13.3783, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.378entry 67.89invalidation 70.95riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.5
Per the 1.25% house rule: risk budget = 0.0125 × $3275 = $40.94; risk per HYPE = 70.95 − 67.89 = $3.06; size = 40.94 / 3.06 ≈ 13.378 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of equity. However, this breaches the mandate's hard 1% risk cap and the 20% notional cap (notional ≈ $908 ≈ 27.7% of equity), so compliant=false.
⊢ size=13.378 (exp 13.3783, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.38entry 67.89invalidation 70.95riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.94. Stop distance = $70.95 - $67.89 = $3.06. Size = $40.94 / $3.06 ≈ 13.38 HYPE, putting exactly 1.25% of equity at risk. Caveat: notional = 13.38 × $67.89 ≈ $908, which is ~27.7% of equity and exceeds my 20% notional hard cap; under the mandate the size would be clipped to ~9.65 HYPE (risk ≈ 0.90%).
⊢ size=13.38 (exp 13.3783, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.64796riskPct 0.90146confidence 0.98
Size is capped by the 20% notional limit before the risk limit: $655 notional at 67.89 equals 9.64796 HYPE. With a 3.06 stop distance, actual risk is about $29.52, or 0.90146% of equity.
⊢ size=9.64796 (exp 13.3783, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.90146
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.64796riskPct 0.9015compliant trueconfidence 0.95
Sizing is capped by the mandate's 20% max notional limit before the risk cap: $655 notional at $67.89 equals 9.64796 HYPE. With a $3.06 stop distance, this risks about $29.52, or 0.9015% of the $3275 account.
⊢ size=9.64796 (exp 13.3783, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9015
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.64entry 67.89invalidation 70.95riskPct 0.9confidence 0.8
Position size is constrained by the 20% max notional hard rule ($655 limit), restricting the short to 9.64 HYPE. This results in an actual risk of 0.9%, strictly complying with the 1% max risk hard rule despite the suggested 1.25%.
⊢ size=9.64 (exp 13.3783, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.648entry 67.89invalidation 70.95riskPct 0.901compliant truemaxNotional 655confidence 0.6
Hard rules override the prompt's 1.25% risk, capping risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity ($655). The notional limit is binding, restricting size to 9.648 HYPE and actual risk to 0.901%.
⊢ size=9.648 (exp 13.3783, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.901
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.378riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Size calculated to risk exactly 1.25% on 3.06 stop distance.
⊢ size=13.378 (exp 13.3783, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.38riskPct 1.25confidence 0
⊢ size=13.38 (exp 13.3783, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.39riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk at most 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94. Stop distance = 70.95 - 67.89 = 3.06. Size = $40.94 / 3.06 = 13.39 HYPE. Notional = 13.39 * 67.89 = $909.25, which is 27.8% of equity (exceeds 20% limit, but question asks for size and riskPct under house rule).
⊢ size=13.39 (exp 13.3783, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.49entry 67.89invalidation 70.95riskPct 1.25confidence 0.75
Risking 1.25% ($40.94) with a $3.06 stop distance yields a position of ~13.49 HYPE. Notional is ~$915 (27.9% of equity), slightly above the 20% guideline, but the house rule overrides the standard 1% risk limit.
⊢ size=13.49 (exp 13.3783, err 0.8%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.38entry 67.89invalidation 70.95riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size calculated as (3275 * 0.0125) / (70.95 - 67.89) = 13.38 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of account equity.
⊢ size=13.38 (exp 13.3783, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.7entry 67.89invalidation 70.95riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Mandate caps risk at 1% of equity ($32.75), which is stricter than the 1.25% house rule; stop distance is $3.06, yielding 10.70 HYPE and 1.0% actual risk.
⊢ size=10.7 (exp 13.3783, err 20.0%), riskPct=1