← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

SOL is consolidating after a sharp rally, and you're eyeing a breakout entry. Given: account $3850, short SOL at 74.55, stop 77.9. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many SOL do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in SOL) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 14.365671641791009, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.37entry 74.55invalidation 77.9riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $3.35; size = 48.13/3.35 ≈ 14.37 SOL, risking exactly 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=14.37 (exp 14.3657, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.36entry 74.55invalidation 77.9riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = 3.35, so size = 48.13/3.35 ≈ 14.36 SOL, risking exactly 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=14.36 (exp 14.3657, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.328entry 74.55invalidation 77.9riskPct 0.8987confidence 0.7
Short entry at 74.55 with stop at 77.9. Position size limited by 20% notional rule: max notional $770, so size = 770/74.55 ≈ 10.328 SOL. Risk is $34.60, which is 0.90% of account, within the 1.25% limit.
⊢ size=10.328 (exp 14.3657, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.8987
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.35entry 74.55invalidation 77.9riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per SOL is 77.9 - 74.55 = 3.35. Max risk is 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 3.35 ≈ 14.35 SOL. Risk is exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=14.35 (exp 14.3657, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.328sizePct 0.2entry 74.55invalidation 77.9riskPct 0.898confidence 1
Although the house rule suggests 1.25% risk, hard rules cap risk at 1% and max notional at 20% of equity ($770). The notional limit is the bottleneck here, restricting the size to 10.328 SOL and actual risk to 0.898%.
⊢ size=10.328 (exp 14.3657, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.898
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.3286sizePct 0.2entry 74.55invalidation 77.9takeProfit 67.85leverage 1riskPct 0.8987maxNotional 770rr 2confidence 0.9
Although the 1% risk limit allows for 11.49 SOL, the hard rule capping a single position's notional at 20% of equity ($770) restricts the size to 10.3286 SOL, resulting in an actual risk of 0.8987%.
⊢ size=10.3286 (exp 14.3657, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.8987
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.37entry 74.55invalidation 77.9riskPct 1.25confidence 0.85
Risk per SOL = 77.9 - 74.55 = 3.35. Max risk = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13. Size = 48.13 / 3.35 ≈ 14.37 SOL, which places exactly 1.25% of account at risk.
⊢ size=14.37 (exp 14.3657, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.37riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% × $3850 = $48.125. Stop distance = 77.90 − 74.55 = 3.35. Size = 48.125 / 3.35 ≈ 14.37 SOL, putting exactly 1.25% of account at risk.
⊢ size=14.37 (exp 14.3657, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.328638riskPct 0.898723confidence 0.9
Sizing is capped by the 20% max notional rule: $770 / $74.55 = 10.328638 SOL. With a $3.35 stop distance, this risks about $34.60, or 0.898723% of the $3850 account.
⊢ size=10.328638 (exp 14.3657, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.898723
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.328638497652582riskPct 0.8987223340040253confidence 0.8
Using the stricter mandate, position size is capped by max notional of 20% equity: $770 / $74.55 = 10.3286 SOL. With a $3.35 stop distance, actual risk is about $34.60, or 0.8987% of equity.
⊢ size=10.328638497652582 (exp 14.3657, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.8987223340040253
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.37entry 74.55invalidation 77.9riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0
Pure calculation: 1.25% of $3850 is $48.125 risk; divided by 3.35 stop distance yields 14.37 SOL. This violates the 1% max risk hard rule and the 20% notional cap (notional would be ~$1071, or 27.8% of equity), so it is non-compliant.
⊢ size=14.37 (exp 14.3657, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.3657entry 74.55invalidation 77.9riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0
Size = max risk ($48.125 at 1.25% of $3,850) / stop distance (3.35) = 14.3657 SOL. This violates the 1% max-risk hard rule and the 20% max-notional rule (notional ~$1,071 is 27.8% of equity).
⊢ size=14.3657 (exp 14.3657, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.49riskPct 1confidence 0.7
Risk capped at hard-rule max of 1% ($38.5); distance 3.35 yields 11.49 SOL short.
⊢ size=11.49 (exp 14.3657, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.37entry 74.55invalidation 77.9riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max size at 1.25% risk on $3850 with $3.35/SOL stop distance.
⊢ size=14.37 (exp 14.3657, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.35entry 74.55invalidation 77.9riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Calculating position size for a short with a 1.25% risk rule: risk amount = $3850 * 0.0125 = $48.125, stop distance = 77.9 - 74.55 = $3.35 per SOL, size = $48.125 / 3.35 ≈ 14.35 SOL.
⊢ size=14.35 (exp 14.3657, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatriskPct 1.25confidence 0.4
Given the context of consolidation after a sharp rally, the trend is not confirmed, and taking a short at 74.55 with a stop at 77.9 would be counter-trend, which is a low-probability trade. The hard rules require survival first and only trading with an edge; here, the signal is unclear, so standing flat is the correct action.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.36riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size of 14.36 SOL is derived by dividing the max risk of $48.125 (1.25% of $3850) by the stop distance of $3.35, resulting in an actual account risk of approximately 1.25%.
⊢ size=14.36 (exp 14.3657, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.37entry 74.55invalidation 77.9riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size calculated by dividing the 1.25% max risk amount ($48.125) by the stop distance ($3.35), yielding 14.37 SOL and an actual risk of 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=14.37 (exp 14.3657, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25