← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

BTC hovers near 66627 after a choppy session as traders eye a potential breakout above local resistance. Given: long BTC — entry 66627, stop 64295.06, target 71873.87. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.250002144137495, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66627invalidation 64295.06takeProfit 71873.87rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk is 2331.94 and reward is 5246.87, giving R:R of 2.25 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66627invalidation 64295.06takeProfit 71873.87rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk is 2331.94 and reward is 5246.87, giving an R:R of ~2.25 which meets the 2:1 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 1
Reward:risk is 2.25 (reward 5246.87, risk 2331.94), which is >= 2.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.25confidence 0
The trade's reward:risk is 2.25, which exceeds the 2:1 minimum. However, as a disciplined trader, I must still assess my edge. With the market described as choppy and merely 'eyeing' a breakout with no confirmed trend, high ADX, or smart-money positioning, there is no genuine edge. I default to flat.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66627invalidation 64295.06takeProfit 71873.87rr 2.25confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66627invalidation 64295.06takeProfit 71873.87rr 2.25confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66627invalidation 64295.06takeProfit 71873.87rr 2.18confidence 0.7
Reward is 5246.87 and risk is 2331.94, giving R:R of ~2.18, which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is taken.
⊢ rr=2.18 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66627invalidation 64295.06takeProfit 71873.87rr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward:risk = (71873.87 - 66627) / (66627 - 64295.06) = 5246.87 / 2331.94 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is permissible on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.9
Reward is 5246.87 versus risk of 2331.94, giving an R:R of 2.25. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade is acceptable on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward is 5246.87 versus risk of 2331.94, giving an R:R of 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66627invalidation 64295.06takeProfit 71873.87rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.25 (5246.87 / 2331.94), which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold. Trade is acceptable pending proper position sizing to cap risk at 1% of equity.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.55
Reward:risk is 5246.87/2331.94 ≈ 2.25, which meets the ≥2 threshold. Choppy session tempers conviction, but the R:R filter is satisfied so the trade is permissible.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66627invalidation 64295.06takeProfit 71873.87rr 2.24confidence 0.8
The reward:risk ratio is approximately 2.24, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is acceptable from a risk perspective.
⊢ rr=2.24 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.24confidence 0.5
The calculated reward-to-risk ratio is (71873.87 - 66627) / (66627 - 64295.06) = 2.24, which meets the minimum threshold of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.24 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66627invalidation 64295.06takeProfit 71873.87rr 2.21confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is 2.21, exceeding the minimum 2.0 threshold, making the long trade compliant and viable.
⊢ rr=2.21 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66627invalidation 64295.06takeProfit 71873.87rr 2.25confidence 0.55
R:R is 5246.87/2331.94 ≈ 2.25, clearing the ≥2 threshold; trade is viable on R:R grounds, though choppy conditions temper conviction.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true