← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

BTC reclaims 66335 after a liquidity sweep, but funding is heating up and resistance looms overhead. Given: long BTC — entry 66335, stop 64013.28, target 71442.78. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.1999982771393607, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66335invalidation 64013.28takeProfit 71442.78rr 2.2confidence 0.6
Risk is 2321.72 and reward is 5107.78, giving R:R ~2.2 which meets the >=2 threshold despite hot funding and overhead resistance.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66335invalidation 64013.28takeProfit 71442.78rr 2.2confidence 0.6
Risk is 2321.72 and reward is 5107.78, giving R:R ~2.2 which clears the 2.0 minimum; reclaim after a sweep is a valid long despite heating funding.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.2confidence 0.9
Reward:risk is 2.2 (target 71442.78 vs stop 64013.28 from entry 66335), which meets the >=2 rule. However, heating funding and overhead resistance reduce edge, so I stand flat.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=false canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66335invalidation 64013.28takeProfit 71442.78rr 2.2confidence 0.8
The calculated reward to risk ratio is 2.2, which satisfies the strict mandate requirement of being greater than or equal to 2.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66335invalidation 64013.28takeProfit 71442.78rr 2.2confidence 0.8
The reward to risk ratio is 2.2, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66335invalidation 64013.28takeProfit 71442.78compliant truerr 2.2confidence 0.55
Reward (5107.78) over risk (2321.72) yields RR ≈ 2.20, which clears the >=2 minimum hurdle, so the trade is permissible on R:R grounds; however, elevated funding and overhead resistance argue for reduced size and tight risk control.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66335invalidation 64013.28takeProfit 71442.78rr 2.2confidence 0.55
R:R = (71442.78 - 66335) / (66335 - 64013.28) = 5107.78 / 2321.72 ≈ 2.20, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold. However, hot funding and overhead resistance cap conviction; size should be conservative if taken.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.95
Reward:risk is approximately 2.20, which meets the minimum requirement of 2. The trade can be taken on R:R criteria.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.55
Reward is 5107.78 versus risk of 2321.72, giving an R:R of about 2.2, which meets the minimum threshold. Funding heating up and overhead resistance reduce conviction, but the stated R:R filter allows the trade.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66335invalidation 64013.28takeProfit 71442.78rr 2.2confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is approximately 2.2, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold. Liquidity sweep and reclaim of 66335 is a valid bullish setup, though heating funding and overhead resistance temper conviction.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66335invalidation 64013.28takeProfit 71442.78rr 2.2confidence 0.55
RR of 2.2 passes the >=2 hard filter, and the liquidity sweep plus reclaim is a valid bullish trigger; however, heating funding (crowded longs) and overhead resistance cap conviction, so size should remain modest.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✗ fail
action longrr 3.061confidence 0.8
RR=7107.78/2321.72 exceeds 2 so trade is allowed.
⊢ rr=3.061 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longrr 3.0615confidence 0.7
RR exceeds 2 so trade qualifies on that rule alone
⊢ rr=3.0615 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66335invalidation 64013.28takeProfit 71442.78rr 2.2confidence 0.6
Reward:risk ratio is ~2.2 (risk 2321.72, reward 5107.78), meeting the minimum 2:1 threshold, but confidence is moderate due to heating funding and overhead resistance.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.2confidence 0.35
R:R is 2.2 (above threshold), but funding is heating up and resistance is overhead, creating a low-confidence environment where the edge is not strong enough to override caution.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.6
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.2, which satisfies the minimum 2:1 requirement, making the trade valid per mandate.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66335invalidation 64013.28takeProfit 71442.78rr 2.2confidence 0.55
R:R of 2.2 clears the 2:1 minimum hurdle; liquidity-sweep reclaim is constructive but heating funding and overhead resistance temper conviction, so size small.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true