← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

SOL is grinding higher after a quiet consolidation near support. Given: long SOL — entry 75.28, stop 72.65, target 81.2. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.25095057034221, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.28invalidation 72.65takeProfit 81.2rr 2.25confidence 0.66
Risk 2.63, reward 5.92, R:R 2.25 clears the 2.0 minimum; trend grinding up off support supports the long.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.28invalidation 72.65takeProfit 81.2rr 2.25confidence 0.62
Risk 2.63, reward 5.92 gives R:R of 2.25 which clears the 2.0 minimum; grinding uptrend off support supports the long.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.28invalidation 72.65takeProfit 81.2rr 2.25confidence 0.9
Risk is 75.28 - 72.65 = 2.63, reward is 81.2 - 75.28 = 5.92, giving R:R of 5.92/2.63 ≈ 2.25, which exceeds the minimum 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.28invalidation 72.65takeProfit 81.2rr 2.25confidence 1
The calculated reward-to-risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making this a valid long setup.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.28invalidation 72.65takeProfit 81.2rr 2.25confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action flatentry 75.28invalidation 72.65takeProfit 81.2rr 1.74confidence 0.9
Reward:risk is (81.2-75.28)/(75.28-72.65) = 5.92/2.63 ≈ 2.25... recalc: 5.92/2.63 = 2.25, which meets the >=2 threshold. Taking the long.
⊢ rr=1.74 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.28invalidation 72.65takeProfit 81.2rr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward 5.92 / Risk 2.63 = 2.25 R:R, which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade is acceptable on a reward:risk basis.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.250950570342205confidence 0.9
Reward is 5.92 versus risk of 2.63, giving an R:R above the minimum 2.0 threshold.
⊢ rr=2.250950570342205 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.8
Reward is 5.92 versus risk of 2.63, giving an R:R of about 2.25, which meets the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 5.92/2.63 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold; SOL is trending higher off support after consolidation, providing a valid long setup.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.6
Reward-to-risk of 2.25 exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold; SOL is trending higher off support after consolidation, offering a valid continuation setup.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.8
RR=2.25 meets the >=2 threshold so the long is valid.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 75.28invalidation 72.65takeProfit 81.2rr 2.26confidence 0.7
The R:R is ~2.26 which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold; consolidation near support with grinding upward momentum provides a reasonable edge for the long setup.
⊢ rr=2.26 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.24confidence 0.45
The R:R is ~2.24, which technically meets the minimum threshold of 2, but the reward margin is slim. Combined with the 'quiet consolidation' context, this suggests low volatility and unclear momentum, triggering the no-edge gate. Standing flat is the disciplined choice.
⊢ rr=2.24 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.8
The reward:risk ratio is 2.25, which exceeds the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 75.28invalidation 72.65takeProfit 81.2rr 2.25confidence 0.5
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.25, which exceeds the minimum threshold of 2, making the trade valid for a long entry.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true