← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

ETH coils near 1774 as funding flips slightly positive ahead of a macro print. Given: long ETH — entry 1774, stop 1711.91, target 1910.6. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.20003221130617, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✗ fail
action flatentry 1774invalidation 1711.91takeProfit 1910.6rr 2.2confidence 0.7
R:R is 2.2 (risk 62.09, reward 136.6), which meets the 2 threshold, but the no-new-positions rule within 30 min of a high-impact macro print forces standing flat.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=false canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatentry 1774invalidation 1711.91takeProfit 1910.6rr 2.2confidence 0.6
R:R is 136.6/62.09 = 2.2, which clears the 2:1 minimum, but a macro print is imminent and the no-new-positions-within-30-min rule applies, so I stand flat despite the acceptable R:R.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=false canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.2confidence 0.95
Calculated RR: (1910.6 - 1774) / (1774 - 1711.91) = 136.6 / 62.09 ≈ 2.20. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade rule is satisfied. However, the prompt states there is a high-impact macro print upcoming, and mandate rule 4 forbids new positions within 30 minutes of such an event. Therefore, the trade must be skipped, and the action is flat.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=false canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1774invalidation 1711.91takeProfit 1910.6rr 2.19confidence 0.7
Risk is 62.09, reward is 136.6, giving RR of 2.19 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum. Trade meets the hard rule, so it's actionable.
⊢ rr=2.19 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.2confidence 1
Although the reward-to-risk ratio of 2.2 meets the minimum threshold, opening a new position ahead of a macro print violates the hard rule against trading within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=false canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.2confidence 1
Although the reward-to-risk ratio is 2.2, hard rules prohibit taking new positions ahead of a macro print.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=false canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1774invalidation 1711.91takeProfit 1910.6rr 2.2confidence 0.7
Reward (136.6) / risk (62.09) ≈ 2.20, which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is permitted on R:R grounds. Sentiment (coiled price, funding flipping positive) supports a long bias with the macro print as the trigger risk.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longentry 1774invalidation 1711.91takeProfit 1910.6rr 2.01confidence 0.55
Reward:risk = (1910.6-1774)/(1774-1711.91) = 136.6/62.09 ≈ 2.20, which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is permissible on R:R grounds. However, funding flipping positive ahead of a macro print suggests crowded long positioning and event risk; sizing should be conservative and a wait/flat stance is reasonable. Taking it only at reduced size given macro uncertainty.
⊢ rr=2.01 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.94
Reward is 136.6 and risk is 62.09, giving an R:R of 2.2, which meets the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.62
Reward:risk is (1910.6-1774)/(1774-1711.91)=2.2, meeting the minimum 2:1 threshold. This only passes the R:R rule; avoid entry if the macro print is within the restricted 30-minute window.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.5
Risk is 62.09 (1774 - 1711.91) and reward is 136.6 (1910.6 - 1774), giving a reward:risk of approximately 2.2, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1774invalidation 1711.91takeProfit 1910.6rr 2.2confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 136.6/62.09 ≈ 2.20, which meets the ≥2 threshold. However, the coil and imminent macro print reduce conviction; size should be kept small or the trade deferred until after the print clears.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.9
RR=136.6/62.09=2.2 meets >=2 rule so trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.2confidence 0.7
RR meets 2+ threshold but macro print imminent and price coiling (no edge) so skip.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.18confidence 0.65
Reward:risk is ~2.18, which meets the threshold, but a macro print is imminent (no new positions within 30 min of high-impact data), and funding has flipped positive, suggesting a crowded long. Edge is unclear; stand flat.
⊢ rr=2.18 (exp 2.20), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1774invalidation 1711.91takeProfit 1910.6rr 2.17confidence 0.6
R:R is 2.17, meeting the >=2 requirement. Funding flipping positive and price coiling suggest momentum potential, but low conviction due to proximity to macro print.
⊢ rr=2.17 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1774invalidation 1711.91takeProfit 1910.6rr 2.18confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 2.18 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.18 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0sizePct 0entry 1774invalidation 1711.91takeProfit 1910.6leverage 1riskPct 0rr 2.2confidence 0
RR is 2.2 which meets the threshold, but skipping due to upcoming high-impact macro print and low-volatility coil (no-edge gate and 30-minute macro rule).
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=false canTrade=true