← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

BTC chops sideways as traders await the next macro catalyst. Given: account $3275, short BTC at 66788, stop 69793.46. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many BTC do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in BTC) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.013621043035009587, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.013621entry 66788invalidation 69793.46riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 3005.46; size = 40.94/3005.46 ≈ 0.01362 BTC, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.013621 (exp 0.0136, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01362entry 66788invalidation 69793.46riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 3005.46; size = 40.94/3005.46 ≈ 0.01362 BTC, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.01362 (exp 0.0136, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01362riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per BTC is $3005.46, max risk $40.94, so size = 0.01362 BTC, risking 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=0.01362 (exp 0.0136, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01362riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per BTC is $3005.46; max risk of 1.25% of $3275 gives $40.94, so position size is 0.01362 BTC.
⊢ size=0.01362 (exp 0.0136, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.009807riskPct 0.9confidence 1
BTC is chopping sideways with no edge, dictating a flat position. If traded, the 20% max notional hard rule caps the position size at 0.0098 BTC, resulting in a 0.9% risk, which overrides both the 1% hard rule and 1.25% house rule for risk.
⊢ size=0.009807 (exp 0.0136, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.0098riskPct 0.9confidence 0
BTC is chopping sideways with no edge, so the correct action is to stand flat. If forced, size is capped at 0.0098 BTC to keep notional under the strict 20% of equity limit, resulting in a 0.9% risk, overriding the 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=0.0098 (exp 0.0136, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.013621riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max risk = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.9375. Stop distance = 69793.46 − 66788 = $3005.46. Size = $40.9375 / $3005.46 ≈ 0.013621 BTC. RiskPct = 1.25% by construction.
⊢ size=0.013621 (exp 0.0136, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.013entry 66788invalidation 69793.46riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per BTC = 69793.46 - 66788 = 3005.46. Max risk = 1.25% of 3275 = 40.9375. Size = 40.9375 / 3005.46 ≈ 0.01362 BTC. Rounded to 0.013 BTC, risk ≈ 39.07, which is 1.19% of account, within the 1.25% cap.
⊢ size=0.013 (exp 0.0136, err 4.6%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.009807151584117506riskPct 0.9confidence 0.98
Size is capped by the 20% max notional rule: $655 / 66788 = 0.00980715 BTC. With a 3005.46 stop distance, actual account risk is 0.9%.
⊢ size=0.009807151584117506 (exp 0.0136, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 0.85
BTC is described as chopping sideways with no clear catalyst, so the no-edge gate says stand flat. No position means 0 BTC size and 0% account risk.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.0136, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0108968entry 66788invalidation 69793.46riskPct 1compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% per trade, overriding the 1.25% suggestion. Size is calculated to risk exactly 1% ($32.75) over the 3005.46 stop distance.
⊢ size=0.0108968 (exp 0.0136, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0098entry 66788invalidation 69793.46riskPct 0.9compliant truemaxNotional 655confidence 0.5
Position size is constrained by the 20% max notional hard rule ($655), which limits the trade to 0.0098 BTC and caps actual risk at 0.9% of equity, correctly overriding the non-compliant 1.25% risk suggestion.
⊢ size=0.0098 (exp 0.0136, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.9
grok-4.3
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.0109riskPct 1confidence 0.8
No edge in sideways chop; size calc uses hard 1% risk cap on given stop distance.
⊢ size=0.0109 (exp 0.0136, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.0109riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Sideways chop, no edge; size calc uses 1% risk cap on given stop distance.
⊢ size=0.0109 (exp 0.0136, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.135riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Calculating position size and risk for existing short to close it. Risk is capped at 1.25% of equity, size is calculated to meet that risk.
⊢ size=0.135 (exp 0.0136, err 891.1%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortentry 66788invalidation 69793.46confidence 0.5
Calculating required position size based on stop distance and max risk.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01362143riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Position size is calculated by dividing the max risk amount ($40.9375) by the stop distance ($3005.46), resulting in exactly 1.25% of the account being risked.
⊢ size=0.01362143 (exp 0.0136, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01362entry 66788invalidation 69793.46riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Position size calculated using the 1.25% house risk rule over the 3005.46 stop distance, resulting in 0.01362 BTC and an actual risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.01362 (exp 0.0136, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25