← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

ETH coils beneath resistance as funding flips neutral and liquidity thins into the weekend. Given: long ETH — entry 1815.8, stop 1765.87, target 1930.64. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.300020028039255, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1815.8invalidation 1765.87takeProfit 1930.64rr 2.3confidence 0.6
Risk is 49.93 and reward is 114.84, giving an R:R of ~2.3, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1815.8invalidation 1765.87takeProfit 1930.64rr 2.3confidence 0.6
Risk is 49.93 and reward is 114.84, giving R:R ~2.3 which clears the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.30002confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.30002 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.99
The trade's reward:risk is 2.30, exceeding the required minimum of 2.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1815.8invalidation 1765.87takeProfit 1930.64rr 2.3confidence 1
The calculated reward to risk ratio is 2.3, which satisfies the strict mandate requirement of being greater than or equal to 2.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.3confidence 0.9
Although the R:R of 2.3 meets the minimum threshold, neutral funding and thinning liquidity into the weekend indicate a lack of clear edge, dictating a flat stance.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=false canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1815.8invalidation 1765.87takeProfit 1930.64rr 2.3confidence 0.45
R:R = (1930.64-1815.8)/(1815.8-1765.87) = 114.84/49.93 ≈ 2.30, which clears the >=2 minimum. However, the context (coiling under resistance, neutral funding, thinning weekend liquidity) signals a low-conviction, choppy regime where edge is questionable, so confidence is kept modest despite the technical R:R pass.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1815.8invalidation 1765.87takeProfit 1930.64rr 2.3confidence 0.7
Reward:risk = (1930.64-1815.8)/(1815.8-1765.87) = 114.84/49.93 ≈ 2.30, which clears the 2:1 minimum, so the trade is permissible on R:R grounds alone.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.95
Reward is 114.84 and risk is 49.93, giving an R:R of 2.3. This meets the minimum reward:risk threshold of 2, so the trade is acceptable on R:R.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.62
Reward is 114.84 and risk is 49.93, giving an R:R of 2.3, which meets the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1815.8invalidation 1765.87takeProfit 1930.64rr 2.3confidence 0.55
Reward:risk is 2.30 (114.84 / 49.93), which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is acceptable on R:R alone.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.3confidence 0.3
R:R of 2.30 passes the minimum filter, but the no-edge gate blocks this trade: ETH is coiling beneath resistance (unclear breakout direction), funding is neutral (no smart-money signal), and thinning weekend liquidity raises execution risk. Standing flat on a chop board.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=false canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.3confidence 0.7
RR meets threshold but funding neutral, coiled price action and thinning weekend liquidity = no edge per gate 1.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatentry 1815.8invalidation 1765.87takeProfit 1930.64rr 2.27confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 2.27 (meets minimum), but funding flipping neutral and thin weekend liquidity suggest weak momentum and potential chop; edge is unclear so standing flat.
⊢ rr=2.27 (exp 2.30), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.29confidence 0.2
Reward:risk ratio of 2.29 meets the minimum threshold, but funding is neutral and liquidity is thinning into the weekend, indicating a weak or uncertain trend environment. The 'no-edge gate' condition is met: this is a choppy setup with low conviction, so the correct action is to stand flat.
⊢ rr=2.29 (exp 2.30), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.7
The reward:risk ratio is 2.3, exceeding the minimum 2.0 threshold required by the mandate.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.3confidence 0.25
R:R is 2.3 which clears the 2:1 hurdle, but neutral funding, thin weekend liquidity, and no clear smart-money positioning mean there is no genuine edge — stand flat per the no-edge gate.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=false canTrade=true