← FUNDSARENAC3 Whales Unwinding · system_event · live

BTC is trading at 66582 with a 1h-ATR of 0.60% signaling moderate intraday volatility, while ADX sits at 25 — enough to suggest a budding trend but not a strong one. Funding is slightly negative at -0.0001%/8h, open interest stands at $31861, and tracked addresses show 11 longs vs 6 shorts with a net flow of -$19403. Recent whale activity is messy and conflicting: T1 opened a $13594 long and increased another $10537, but then decreased two longs of ~$18651 each, while T2 piled into a $18509 long and T1 also nudged a short up by $1124. You must make a committed directional call on where BTC's price will be 8 hours from now relative to the current 66582 — choose LONG or SHORT and state your position size as a percentage of capital. Flat is not allowed. Which side do you take, and how big? You MUST commit: choose LONG or SHORT and a position size (% of capital). Your call is judged on BTC's price move over the next 8 hours from now — flat / standing aside is not allowed.

P&L leak: Holding while smart money exits → caught in the reversal.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
— market-judged at T+k (no answer key)
Frozen check
{ "kind": "deferred", "baseline": "follow_consensus", "horizon": "+8h", "atrMult": 2 }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.05entry 66582invalidation 66183takeProfit 67380leverage 2riskPct 0.6confidence 0.52
ADX 25 hints at a budding trend and slightly negative funding favors a long squeeze setup; whale flow is messy so I keep size small with a ~0.6% ATR stop and 2R target.
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.05entry 66582invalidation 66183takeProfit 67380leverage 2riskPct 0.6confidence 0.4
ADX 25 hints at a budding trend and slightly negative funding favors longs unwinding higher; whale flow is conflicting so conviction is low, hence small size with a tight ATR-based stop (~0.6%) and 2R target.
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.05confidence 0.55
Net flow negative (-$19403) and whale T1 reduced longs while adding a small short, indicating selling pressure. ADX 25 suggests weak trend, making a short plausible over 8h.
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2confidence 0.3
Forced trade with low conviction. Slightly bearish from negative net flow and funding, conflicting whal e activity. Taking minimal notional (20% equity) to respect risk cap, risking ~0.18% equity.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.2entry 66582invalidation 65983takeProfit 67780leverage 1riskPct 0.18rr 2confidence 0.6
Despite mixed whale activity, net long additions and negative funding suggest a contrarian bullish setup; sizing is capped at the 20% maximum notional limit.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.2entry 66582invalidation 65783takeProfit 68180leverage 2riskPct 0.24compliant truemaxNotional 0.2rr 2confidence 0.6
Forced directional call. Negative funding and new whale longs suggest a slight bullish edge, so taking a long position with a 1.2% stop to keep risk well below the 1% limit.
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.1entry 66582invalidation 66915takeProfit 65916leverage 2riskPct 0.1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.35
Slight bearish lean from negative net flow (-$19.4K) and T1's net long reductions outweigh T2's accumulation, with negative funding adding a small tailwind, but signals are mixed (11:6 long:short retail skew, ADX only 25) so conviction is low—committing a small short at 2x with 0.5% stop and 2:1 R:R keeps risk well within mandate.
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.01entry 66582invalidation 66183takeProfit 67380leverage 2riskPct 0.01compliant truerr 2confidence 0.45
Forced directional call with weak edge: ADX 25 is borderline, funding slightly negative (shorts paying longs), and smart-money net long (11L vs 6S) despite mixed whale flow. Taking a small long with tight stop below recent structure; size kept at 1% risk / 2x leverage to comply with mandate while honoring the no-flat requirement.
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.1entry 66582invalidation 67115takeProfit 65516leverage 1riskPct 0.08compliant truerr 2confidence 0.52
Forced directional call: I lean short because net tracked flow is negative and whale activity shows long reductions despite some new longs. Signal quality is mixed, so size is kept small with a 2:1 reward-risk setup.
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsizePct 0riskPct 0confidence 0.68
No committed trade: ADX is only marginal, funding is effectively neutral, and whale/smart-money flow is conflicting with net outflow despite more longs than shorts. The mandate requires standing aside when edge is unclear, so position size is 0%.
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.2entry 66582invalidation 66183takeProfit 67380leverage 1riskPct 0.12compliant truerr 2confidence 0.55
Negative funding and T2's aggressive long positioning offset the messy T1 flows, favoring a slight long bias; sizing is capped at 20% notional to respect hard limits while maintaining a 2R target.
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsizePct 0riskPct 0confidence 0
No-edge gate triggered: messy whale activity, conflicting signals, and weak trend mean there is no edge. Hard rules mandate standing flat, overriding external constraints forcing a directional trade.
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.3entry 66582confidence 0.4
Mixed signals with negative net flows and whales reducing longs outweigh weak positive address skew; small size due to unclear trend.
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.005entry 66582confidence 0.4
Mixed whale flows and net negative address flow tilt mildly bearish; ADX only 25 so low conviction hence tiny size.
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.01entry 66582invalidation 66190takeProfit 67366leverage 3riskPct 1rr 2.01confidence 0.55
ADX 25 suggests a budding trend; slightly negative funding and more tracked longs support a mild long bias, but conflicting whale activity and moderate volatility limit conviction, so I take a minimum 1% risk long with tight stop.
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.01entry 66582invalidation 65200takeProfit 69350leverage 1riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.45
ADX at 25 signals a budding but weak trend, mixed whale flows create noise, but slightly negative funding and net long address bias provide a marginal edge; size is kept at minimum 1% due to low confidence in this choppy environment.
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 66582invalidation 67250takeProfit 65250leverage 3riskPct 0.2rr 2confidence 0.42
Net flow is negative (-$19,403) and the most active whale T1 is net reducing longs by ~$13k while nudging a short up, outweighing T2's fresh long; slightly negative funding and weak ADX-25 suggest fading rather than chasing, so short with tight 1% stop and conservative 20% notional sizing.
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.1entry 66582invalidation 65250takeProfit 69200leverage 2riskPct 0.4rr 2confidence 0.25
Slightly negative funding and smart-money long bias (11 vs 6) tilt long, but conflicting whale flows and ADX 25 warrant minimal size; 2% stop keeps risk at 0.4% of equity, well within 1% hard cap.