← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

SOL chops sideways as traders eye a potential breakout above recent resistance. Given: account $3850, short SOL at 74.15, stop 77.67. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many SOL do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in SOL) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 13.671875000000016, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.67entry 74.15invalidation 77.67riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Max risk 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance $3.52, so size = 48.13/3.52 ≈ 13.67 SOL, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=13.67 (exp 13.6719, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.67entry 74.15invalidation 77.67riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $3.52; size = 48.13/3.52 ≈ 13.67 SOL, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=13.67 (exp 13.6719, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.67riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per SOL = 77.67 - 74.15 = 3.52 USDT. Max risk 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 3.52 ≈ 13.67 SOL.
⊢ size=13.67 (exp 13.6719, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.67entry 74.15invalidation 77.67riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Maximum size for 1.25% risk: $48.125/($3.52 per SOL) = 13.67 SOL.
⊢ size=13.67 (exp 13.6719, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.384sizePct 0.2entry 74.15invalidation 77.67riskPct 0.949confidence 1
Position size is constrained by the hard rule of 20% maximum notional per trade ($770), which overrides the 1% risk limit and the suggested 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=10.384 (exp 13.6719, err 24.0%), riskPct=0.949
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 10.38entry 74.15invalidation 77.67riskPct 0.95confidence 0
SOL is chopping sideways with no clear edge, dictating a flat position. If traded, the 20% max notional rule ($770) caps the size at 10.38 SOL, resulting in a 0.95% risk, which overrides the 1.25% house rule to respect the 1% hard risk limit.
⊢ size=10.38 (exp 13.6719, err 24.1%), riskPct=0.95
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.67entry 74.15invalidation 77.67riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.4
Sized to the 1.25% house rule: risk $48.13 / $3.52 stop distance = 13.67 SOL. However, this violates two mandate hard rules: (1) risk exceeds the 1% per-trade cap, and (2) notional of ~$1013.63 exceeds the 20%-of-equity notional cap ($770). A mandate-compliant size would be ~10.38 SOL at ~0.95% risk.
⊢ size=13.67 (exp 13.6719, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.67entry 74.15invalidation 77.67riskPct 1.25confidence 0.3
Sizing: max risk = 1.25% × $3850 = $48.125; stop distance = 77.67 − 74.15 = $3.52; size = 48.125 / 3.52 ≈ 13.67 SOL (rounded down so realized risk ≤ 1.25%). In practice a choppy, pre-breakout tape is a no-edge regime per the discipline gate, so I would stand flat rather than initiate this short.
⊢ size=13.67 (exp 13.6719, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 10.384355riskPct 0.949409confidence 0.87
Although the stated house rule allows 1.25%, the stricter mandate caps risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity. The 20% notional cap binds, allowing 10.384355 SOL, which risks about 0.949409% of equity at the 77.67 stop.
⊢ size=10.384355 (exp 13.6719, err 24.0%), riskPct=0.949409
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.38436riskPct 0.94943confidence 0.55
Using the stricter 1% mandate and 20% max-notional cap, the notional cap binds: $770 / 74.15 = 10.38436 SOL. At a $3.52 stop distance, this risks about $36.55, or 0.94943% of the $3850 account.
⊢ size=10.38436 (exp 13.6719, err 24.0%), riskPct=0.94943
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.671875entry 74.15invalidation 77.67riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.3
Calculated size: 1.25% of $3,850 = $48.125 risk / $3.52 stop distance = 13.67 SOL. Flagged non-compliant because 1.25% exceeds my 1% hard-rule cap and notional ($1,013.77) exceeds the 20% equity limit ($770).
⊢ size=13.671875 (exp 13.6719, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.384entry 74.15invalidation 77.67takeProfit 67.11riskPct 0.95confidence 0.5
System hard rules override the 1.25% risk suggestion, capping risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity; the 20% notional limit restricts size to 10.384 SOL, resulting in a 0.95% actual risk.
⊢ size=10.384 (exp 13.6719, err 24.0%), riskPct=0.95
grok-4.3
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.9375riskPct 1confidence 0.8
Risk limited to hard-rule max of 1% ($38.5); distance 3.52 yields size 10.9375 SOL at exactly 1% risk.
⊢ size=10.9375 (exp 13.6719, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.67riskPct 1.25confidence 0
⊢ size=13.67 (exp 13.6719, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 1.25confidence 0.95
Given a short position at 74.15 with a stop at 77.67, the stop distance is 3.52 SOL. To risk exactly 1.25% of the $3850 account ($48.125), the position size would be approximately 13.67 SOL. However, the question asks 'how many SOL do you buy' which is ambiguous for a short; the position is already short, so no additional buying is required unless covering. The size for the short is 13.67 SOL, and the risk is 1.25% as specified.
⊢ size=0 (exp 13.6719, err 100.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 3.48riskPct 1.25confidence 0.85
House rule caps risk at 1.25% ($48.125). The stop is 3.52 points away, so size = 48.125 / 3.52 ≈ 13.67 SOL. However, this is a short position; the question asks 'how many SOL do you buy' which is contradictory. Assuming it's asking to close/cover the short: buy 13.67 SOL. But the current price context and rule compliance: risk is exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=3.48 (exp 13.6719, err 74.5%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.67entry 74.15invalidation 77.67riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Position size calculated to risk exactly 1.25% of the account ($48.125) over the stop distance of $3.52, resulting in 13.67 SOL.
⊢ size=13.67 (exp 13.6719, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 13.67riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Shorting a choppy market with a potential upside breakout violates the no-edge gate; standing flat. Hypothetical size based on the 1.25% risk rule is 13.67 SOL.
⊢ size=13.67 (exp 13.6719, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25