← FUNDSARENAC3 Whales Unwinding · system_event · live

ETH is trading at 1775 with a 1h-ATR of 0.94% signaling moderate volatility, and ADX at 37 pointing to a firmly established trend. Funding sits at a near-neutral 0.0004%/8h, open interest is thin at roughly $805,713, and tracked addresses show 0 longs vs 1 short with a net -$1314 lean — the only notable whale move being a T3 SHORT increase of $1314. With these crosscurrents (strong trend strength but tiny OI and whisper-thin bearish whale positioning), you must make a committed 8-hour directional call on ETH judged solely on the price 8 hours from now versus the current 1775. Choose LONG or SHORT and state your position size as a percentage of capital — flat is not allowed. Which side do you take and how big? You MUST commit: choose LONG or SHORT and a position size (% of capital). Your call is judged on ETH's price move over the next 8 hours from now — flat / standing aside is not allowed.

P&L leak: Holding while smart money exits → caught in the reversal.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
— market-judged at T+k (no answer key)
Frozen check
{ "kind": "deferred", "baseline": "follow_consensus", "horizon": "+8h", "atrMult": 2 }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✗ fail
action shortsizePct 0.1entry 1775invalidation 1791.7takeProfit 1741.6leverage 2riskPct 0.94confidence 0.55
ADX 37 confirms a firm trend and the only whale signal is a T3 short increase, so I align short with momentum; stop at ~1x ATR above entry keeps risk near 1% at modest size given thin OI and neutral funding.
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.106sizePct 0.1entry 1775invalidation 1791.7takeProfit 1741.6leverage 3riskPct 1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.55
Strong ADX (37) confirms a real trend and the only tracked whale lean is a T3 short increase, tilting bias bearish; I short with a ~0.94% ATR-sized stop (~1791.7) and 2R target near 1741.6, sizing modestly given thin OI and low conviction.
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1775leverage 1confidence 0.55
ADX 37 confirms a strong trend, and the only tracked whale move is a fresh short increase, giving a slight directional edge despite thin OI. Taking a small 5% capital short with 1x leverage to respect the bearish lean while limiting exposure in low-liquidity conditions.
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsizePct 0.05confidence 0.3
ADX 37 shows strong trend, whale positioning is net short despite thin OI; taking a cautious short with small size given low conviction.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1775invalidation 1800takeProfit 1725leverage 1riskPct 0.28rr 2confidence 0.6
ADX at 37 indicates a strong trend, and the only whale positioning is a recent short. Given the thin OI, I will follow the bearish whale lean with a max allowed 20% notional size.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1775invalidation 1800takeProfit 1725leverage 1riskPct 0.28rr 2confidence 0.3
ADX indicates a strong trend and the only smart money positioning is a recent short, dictating a bearish lean despite thin open interest.
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action shortsizePct 0.03entry 1775invalidation 1792.7takeProfit 1739.5leverage 1riskPct 1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.42
ADX 37 confirms a trend, but the only tracked whale flow is a T3 short increase with net bearish lean and funding near-neutral (no crowded long squeeze). Thin OI ($805k) means low conviction either way, so I take the bearish whale signal as the tiebreaker. Short with 1x leverage, 3% notional sizing keeps risk at ~1% of equity with stop above recent swing and a 2:1 R:R to 1739.5.
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsizePct 0.06entry 1775invalidation 1785takeProfit 1755leverage 2riskPct 0.34compliant truerr 2confidence 0.35
Only directional signals (whale short increase, slightly positive funding, 0 longs vs 1 short) lean bearish; ADX 37 confirms a trend exists but doesn't specify direction. OI is thin so signals are weak, warranting small size and low confidence. Short with stop above structure at 1785 and 2:1 R:R target at 1755.
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsizePct 0.1entry 1775invalidation 1792takeProfit 1741leverage 1riskPct 0.096rr 2confidence 0.53
Forced directional call: take the tiny bearish positioning as the only directional input, but size conservatively because OI is thin and trend direction is not specified. Stop is about 1 ATR above entry with a 2R take-profit, keeping notional and risk well inside mandate limits.
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsizePct 0.1entry 1775invalidation 1800.03takeProfit 1724.94leverage 1riskPct 0.141rr 2confidence 0.53
Forced directional call: take the short because the only smart-money signal is bearish, but OI is thin and funding is neutral, so conviction is low. Size is kept small, with stop risk well under 1% of equity and reward:risk at 2:1.
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 1775invalidation 1755takeProfit 1815leverage 1riskPct 0.23compliant truerr 2confidence 0.6
ADX at 37 confirms a strong trend while thin OI and neutral funding suggest room for continuation; position size is capped at 20% notional to comply with hard limits.
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.1entry 1775invalidation 1757.25takeProfit 1810.5leverage 2riskPct 0.2rr 2confidence 0.4
Forced directional choice leans long due to lack of heavy bearish whale conviction and neutral funding, utilizing minimal notional to respect the 20% cap and low confidence in an unspecified trend direction.
grok-4.3
bare
✗ fail
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1775confidence 0.55
Thin bearish whale flow and established trend strength favor a mild downside bias over 8h despite neutral funding; size kept tiny given unclear direction and low OI.
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1775confidence 0.35
Strong ADX but neutral funding, tiny OI and only whisper-thin bearish whale flow give marginal edge to short; size kept tiny due to crosscurrents and low conviction.
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortsizePct 0.01entry 1775invalidation 1795takeProfit 1725leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2.5confidence 0.55
Strong ADX trend and a confirmed short-biased whale positioning (net negative, single T3 short increase) outweigh the thin OI, suggesting bearish continuation over the next 8 hours, though confidence is tempered by low open interest and neutral funding.
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsizePct 0.01entry 1775invalidation 1800takeProfit 1725leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.55
ADX confirms a strong trend; the only directional signal is a bearish whale short increase, aligning with the short side despite thin OI, justifying a small 1% risk position.
glm-5.1
bare
✗ fail
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1775invalidation 1808takeProfit 1709leverage 1riskPct 0.38rr 2confidence 0.55
Bearish whale lean and thin OI suggest the strong trend may be exhausted or vulnerable to a reversal; shorting with a 2-ATR stop keeps notional within the 20% cap and risk well under 1%.
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1775invalidation 1793takeProfit 1739leverage 1riskPct 0.05rr 2confidence 0.35
ADX 37 confirms a trend; the only smart-money signal is a T3 short increase, giving a slight bearish lean. However, whisper-thin OI and neutral funding cap conviction, so size is kept minimal at 5% of capital with a 1% stop (0.05% equity risk).